The U.S. job market is flashing red, and the uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy has sharply increased.

The latest research from the San Francisco Fed shows that the significant decline in the number of immigrants to the United States could lead to a slowdown in labor force growth, or even contraction, in the coming years, with net immigration expected to "plummet" to around 515,000 this year.
Researchers wrote in a report released on November 19 that the declining trend in 2025 is concerning, as the decrease in the working-age population may become a persistent trend, potentially leading to a slowdown in labor force growth or even negative growth in the coming years.
Since his second term in the White House, Trump has started to reform the immigration system, including the continued large-scale detention and deportation of undocumented immigrants, as well as restricting the entry of chronic disease patients who severely impact public finances. The International Monetary Fund warns that the impact of the White House tightening immigration policies on the country's economic growth prospects should not be underestimated. Deporting 10% of undocumented immigrants each year will lead to a 3.3% contraction in GDP.
As a result of the previous government shutdown, the official weekly unemployment claims data has not been released on time since late September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the October household data, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate and other key statistics, could not be collected retroactively. These non-farm employment data will be included in the November employment report, which will be released on December 16 instead of the originally scheduled December 5.
Data released earlier this week also showed that from mid-September to mid-October, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits increased significantly by nearly 40,000. This indicates that against the backdrop of an uncertain economic environment, companies' willingness to hire has weakened, and the unemployment rate remained high throughout October.
The rapid growth of ongoing claims suggests a continuation of weakness in the labor market, which aligns with the current situation of shrinking hiring. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett also warned that due to reduced economic output, a government "shutdown" could result in a loss of 60,000 jobs in the private sector.
The weak labor market has also affected household financial expectations, dragging down the real estate industry. In November, the home builder confidence index has remained sluggish for the 19th consecutive month, only slightly rising to 38.
Additionally, the hottest capital flow in the market has formed an internal circulation within the AI system. Industry insiders warn that AI is rapidly approaching the point of replacing a large number of entry-level white-collar jobs, with junior positions in consulting, law, finance, and other fields likely to be largely replaced within five years.
The Federal Reserve's last interest rate meeting of the year will be held on December 9-10. According to the latest timeline released by the White House, the Federal Reserve will not have access to official employment market data since October before the next meeting.
Concerns about the labor market situation have been one of the key reasons for the Federal Reserve to restart the easing cycle. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that the Fed has its own data sources to effectively monitor the health of the U.S. economy, recent public statements from policymakers reflect that disagreements persist.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting, released on November 19, show that there are still significant disagreements among decision-makers on whether to cut interest rates in December. They are striving to reach a consensus against a backdrop of missing data, including weighing the dual risks of rising inflation and a weak labor market.
The lack of employment data may affect the wait-and-see票委. Officials in favor of rate cuts believe that cutting interest rates can prevent the possibility of a significant rise in the unemployment rate.
As of the time of publication, the Federal Reserve watch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 32.7%, a significant drop from yesterday, while the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 67.3%.
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