Today, the global market enters a data-intensive period, with the European manufacturing PMI and speeches from Fed officials making their rounds. These macro signals often serve as the trigger for significant fluctuations in the crypto market.

Historical experience shows that central bank policy statements have a significant impact on the digital asset market. The hawkish remarks of the European Central Bank president have repeatedly pushed up the dollar index, thereby putting pressure on Bitcoin; while the speeches of the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are even more of a market focus. After one previous statement, the BTC daily drop reached as much as 8% within 24 hours, leading to many leveraged long positions being forcibly liquidated.

The essence behind this kind of fluctuation is the game between market sentiment and liquidity expectations. Retail investors are prone to fall into two extremes: either blindly cutting losses out of panic or increasing positions against the trend in hopes of a rebound. In actual cases, some have reduced their positions in advance to avoid risks, while others have suffered significant losses due to impulsive actions.

In light of tonight's US PMI data and statements from policy officials, rational strategies include: first, focusing on whether the data exceeds expectations; second, setting reasonable stop-loss levels to avoid emotional decision-making; third, controlling leverage ratios to leave room for unexpected fluctuations. When the market experiences increased short-term volatility, it often harbors structural opportunities, but the prerequisite is effective risk management.

The cyclical characteristics of the crypto market determine that the alternation of panic and greed is the norm. Staying calm and using probabilistic thinking instead of a gambling mindset is key to navigating bull and bear markets. Which direction do you think today's data will trigger a breakout?