#美联储恢复降息进程 is currently at a delicate balance point. The sentiment on the funding side is lukewarm, while the technical indicator shows some signs of stabilization.

Looking ahead to the next three to six months, there are roughly three paths: The optimistic view is that if the macro environment improves and funds continue to flow into ETFs, breaking through the hurdle of 98,000 to 100,000 is not impossible. At that time, reaching 110,000 or 120,000 is also a possibility. What about the more conventional approach? If the direction is unclear, then we might just oscillate repeatedly within the range of 88,000 to 98,000, running out the clock. The most conservative scenario—if the macro environment causes trouble, it wouldn't be surprising to break below 85,000, and we would have to test the support around 75,000 to 80,000 to see if it's solid enough.

There will definitely be bumps in the short term, but the long-term logic hasn't collapsed. On the practical level, keep a close eye on the volume changes at those key price levels. As soon as there's any sign of movement in capital flows, you need to adjust your strategy; don't just hold on stubbornly. Being flexible is always a good approach.