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BTC just stabilized at 90,000, and everyone thought 100,000 was within reach, but it stumbled and slid directly to 80,000. Even more dramatic is that there is a Whale on-chain with unrealized gains of 26.83 million USD, who hasn't taken profits yet and instead started placing buy orders lying in ambush at the low positions—what on earth does this guy see?
**First, look at his trading methods**
The short order was opened at 111,000, and the unrealized gains are already quite substantial. Normally, one would have taken profits by now, but he refuses to exit and has placed a bunch of limit buy orders in the range of 67,000 to 68,000.
This conveys two signals: he judges that there is not much space below, and there is enough hard support around 67,000, making it worth taking a long position. But from another perspective, there is still nearly a 20,000 dollar drop between the current 87,000 and his target price. For us ordinary people, this distance represents a tangible risk exposure.
**Looking at the technical signals again**
Looking at the 1-hour K-line, BTC is currently in a rather awkward position:
On the surface, it seems that the bulls are gaining strength – the price is testing the 87,500 resistance level, a golden cross has formed, and buying pressure appears to dominate. However, a closer look at the trading volume shows a significant and continuous shrinkage. This divergence between volume and price usually indicates insufficient upward momentum, making it easy to experience a false breakout followed by a pullback.
**My opinion is this**
86,150 is a critical line of life and death, and it must not be broken with high volume. Only by holding this position and breaking above 87,500 can we truly say that the rebound has begun. If it falls below 86,150, it is very likely to head towards the buy order price of that Whale.
Before a clear breakout above 87,500, any rise should be approached with caution to avoid being lured into a false bullish sentiment. Don't forget, the Whale's buying price is at 67,000, while your buying price is at 87,000; this is not even the same starting line. His operational cycle and cost structure are entirely different from those of retail investors, so don’t let their long-term layout mislead your pace.