#美联储重启降息步伐 87.3% probability of a rate cut—does that really mean guaranteed profits? Don’t be blinded by that number!

Institutional players in the crypto market have already started “betting in advance.” When the probability of a rate cut is fully priced in by the market, the real trading opportunity actually lies in that 12.7% of “surprise.” Powell’s press conference is the real moment of truth—one hawkish remark and Bitcoin could see a sharp pullback, and such a pullback might just be the golden dip to buy.

Many retail investors fall into the same trap: they keep chasing high-probability news everywhere but ignore the simplest rule of the market—the gap between expectations and reality is where profits come from. “Buy the rumor, sell the news”—this old saying still shines bright.

The crypto world isn’t short on news; what it lacks is clear-headed judgment. Don’t get hijacked by emotions, and don’t let probability numbers make decisions for you. The people who really make money aren’t the ones chasing the highs, but those who stay rational when a storm is brewing and dare to question when everyone else is excited.

How do you plan to respond to this rate cut cycle?