#数字货币市场洞察 December Market Analysis: Inflation Locked at 3%, $BTC $ETH Dual-Token Trading Strategy

The latest inflation data is about to be released, with market expectations locked at the 3% level. This is a critical juncture—the institutions previously bet on a rate cut of over 25 basis points, but now the inflation data has pinned down those expectations, severely compressing the room for easing. As a result, capital is starting to exit the crypto market and flowing en masse into more stable-yielding Japanese assets, tightening overall market liquidity.

The supply side story is just as tough: over the past 12 months, BTC has seen a net outflow of 403,200 coins. In theory, reduced supply should support prices. But things are different now—panic-driven chain reactions have completely overshadowed this positive factor.

[$BTC Technical Analysis]

The price has repeatedly faced resistance around the 9,200 level, and the 4-hour K-line has already broken the middle band support, with trading volume significantly shrinking. The key signal is a clear bearish engulfing pattern, with the KDJ indicator continuing to open downward into oversold territory—this suggests that downward momentum has not yet been exhausted.

Trading logic:
- 9,050 is the first rebound resistance; if it cannot hold here, the hourly chart will continue to weaken
- The 8,880 area can be considered for light long positions, as it is a manageable entry point for risk
- For shorts, focus on the 9,030-9,070 range; a break below targets 8,950-8,880, and a further drop looks to 8,760

[$ETH Short-Term Strategy]

Short positions can be placed between 3,118-3,137, with the first target at 3,080-3,033; if this level breaks as well, the next focus is on 2,978.

Overall, the backdrop of tightening liquidity remains. This round of decline may not be a one- or two-day event, and patience is needed to wait for confirmation of key support levels.