~Market Analysis $HYPE ‌$HYPE ‌

In the past 3 days, HYPE fluctuated between **22.19 and 25.54 USDT**, with a daily gain of **7.58%**, while trading volume continued to shrink. The RSI rose to **74.9**, entering the overbought zone near the range high, so short-term risk of profit-taking is increasing.

~News Focus

- **Arthur Hayes: Altseason is happening, HYPE is the cycle's top narrative**; Hayes has repeatedly expressed bullish views on HYPE, highlighting its surge from $2 to $60 and urging focus on new cycle opportunities—this has attracted active capital flows;
- **Whale takes over $15 million long HYPE positions on Hyperliquid, high leverage in play**; On-chain data shows significant whale activity in the past 24h, with liquidation price near $22.9—market volatility intensifies;
- **2026 crypto trends shift to governance tokens & consumer-grade products**; prediction markets and perpetual contracts gain traction as platforms like Polymarket drive sectoral rotation and capital reallocation;
- **Fed policy upgrade: RMP replaces traditional QE, improving liquidity expectations**; macro risk appetite is rebounding, lifting overall sentiment.

Mainstream narratives, institutional capital and macro liquidity are becoming more aligned, driving up risk appetite for the short term, but volatility remains elevated.

~Market Sentiment

- Overall crypto market shows **extreme fear** (Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 20), most funds are on hold;
- Opinions are sharply divided: whales and leading KOLs employ high-leverage longs, but retail sentiment remains cautious—on-chain activity is strong and short-term volatility is high;
- Trader performance varies, with rapid long-short shifts; major KOLs differ on position strategies.

~Key Points to Watch

- **Whether volume recovers**: Rebound in trading volume is crucial for sustaining the uptrend;
- **On-chain fund flow changes**: Whale accumulation or exit will greatly impact volatility;
- **Macro policy shifts**: How Fed's RMP policy affects global liquidity should be closely tracked;
- **Institutional buy/sell trends**: Hyperliquid whale flows and position changes need constant monitoring;
- **Whether market sentiment converges**: If multi-sided opinions form consensus, a new trend may emerge.

Overall, market risk appetite is improving but sentiment remains divided; future moves will rely more on volume, capital flow, and macro policy changes.

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