#以太坊大户持仓变化 $BTC $BREV $ETH

Will the US job growth slowdown stabilize the market in the first month of the new year?

Just after the New Year, bad news arrived. When the December ADP employment data was released, a gain of 41,000 was a bit shocking—well below the market expectation of 50,000. The momentum in the US labor market appears to be slowing down into a recession. Although the private sector is still hiring, its momentum has weakened significantly. Large companies are laying off or freezing hiring, while small and medium-sized enterprises are barely filling gaps, unable to support the overall situation.

Looking at industries, education, healthcare, and services are still holding up, but professional services and manufacturing continue to languish. ADP’s chief economist openly stated, "Large employers are still contracting, only micro and small businesses are barely staying afloat." Interestingly, the wage growth for job switchers has actually risen to 6.6%—indicating that talent competition isn’t as cold as it seems.

The real drama has yet to begin. Will Friday’s non-farm payroll report reverse the downward trend? Will the unemployment rate unexpectedly drop? Can the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut plans continue? The tug-of-war between employment and inflation has entered a decisive moment, and crypto traders are all waiting for this.