2026-01-07 15:10:16

#数字资产行情上升 Recently, I discovered an interesting phenomenon— the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Japanese Yen has exceeded 0.86. In other words, 73% of $BTC price fluctuations can be explained by the Yen's movements. At first glance, this number doesn't seem too eye-catching, but upon closer thought, it’s quite mind-boggling.

What was the original intention of buying Bitcoin? To hedge against fiat currency devaluation, right? But now, BTC is almost moving in sync with the Yen, which significantly diminishes its safe-haven attribute. Where does the problem lie? Japanese investors indeed have a substantial presence in the crypto market. Coupled with the strengthening linkage of global macro liquidity, these two forces colliding create this "same frequency" situation.

Digging deeper, the Bank of Japan is still maintaining an accommodative policy, and the probability of the Yen continuing to weaken is quite high. Under these circumstances, $BTC may face additional downward pressure—after all, a drying up of market liquidity often squeezes both crypto and fiat markets simultaneously.

This reflects a trend: cryptocurrencies are gradually integrating into the traditional financial system, and the aura of being an "independent safe-haven asset" is fading. Investors who want to seize the opportunity must keep a close eye on the forex market, especially every fluctuation in the USD/JPY exchange rate. This might be a better early indicator of market sentiment than simply analyzing on-chain data.

BTC0.04%

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GweiObserver

· 01-10 08:47

The correlation of 0.86 is a bit scary; it feels like BTC is becoming more and more like fiat currency, and there's no point in talking about hedging...

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BridgeJumper

· 01-08 08:56

What are the retail investors over in Japan up to again? How did they manage to crash the BTC?

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PonziWhisperer

· 01-07 15:38

Damn, 0.86 correlation, this is outrageous. Has BTC really become a puppet of the Japanese Yen now? What are Japanese retail investors up to again? When liquidity dries up, we all have to take the hit. Safe-haven asset? Laughable. It's just a high-volatility alternative to fiat currency now. So, instead of watching candlestick charts, it's better to keep an eye on the exchange rate. I finally understand this time. This is the real correlation play; traditional finance has been doing it this way for a long time. BTC has been domesticated. What happened to the punk spirit? It's all been eaten by the Yen.

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HalfIsEmpty

· 01-07 15:34

Japanese traders are entering aggressively, now BTC is tied to the Japanese Yen. It feels like the safe-haven attribute is really gone.

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ImpermanentPhobia

· 01-07 15:32

0.86 correlation? How did our safe-haven assets become followers of the yen... Japan is flooding the market again, this is the end So, now when trading cryptocurrencies, you have to watch the exchange rate; just looking at on-chain data is really pointless BTC's independence is weakening more and more, it feels a bit off Another "risk mitigation" story is being slapped in the face by reality, this is ridiculous When liquidity tightens, we get hit too; this correlation is too strong, which isn't a good thing

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Ramen_Until_Rich

· 01-07 15:26

0.86 correlation broken, huh? So is BTC still called a safe-haven asset? Haha. To be honest, it's just a puppet dancing along with the Japanese Yen now. If the Bank of Japan continues to flood the market, BTC will have to take the hit. When liquidity dries up, both sides get squeezed out. That logic is a bit extreme. Instead of watching K-line charts, it's better to watch the USD/JPY trend. Realization came too late. Integrating into the traditional financial system? Then it's not the same thing we believed in initially. If Japanese investors can so easily stir the market, who will be the next country?

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WalletInspector

· 01-07 15:20

Wow, with a correlation of 0.86, is BTC still considered a safe-haven asset now... Feels like it's just being manipulated by Japanese retail investors.

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