U.S. December ADP employment data shows unexpected weakness—only 41,000 new jobs added, far below market expectations, further confirming signals of a weakening labor market. This has heightened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with many institutions beginning to estimate a potential 75-100 basis point easing room by 2026. If this Friday’s non-farm payroll data also shows weakness, the probability of a rate cut in January will significantly increase.

Following the announcement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated, allowing BTC to stabilize near $92,000, while ETH fluctuated around $3,250. Investors seem to have already priced in the easing expectations—Federal Reserve officials previously hinted that "interest rate cuts could exceed 100 basis points this year."

However, the short-term market direction still depends on Friday’s data. If the unemployment rate does not rise significantly, expectations for rate cuts may reverse. The current strategy is to closely monitor policy windows and find structural opportunities amid changing expectations.