Last night's market was really lively. BTC surged past $96,000 in one go, and various tokens also skyrocketed, with the entire community buzzing with "bull market starting" and "get on board" voices.

I've been in the trading circle for a few years, and to be honest—these times are actually the most dangerous. Those chasing the high now are likely to become the final bagholders. Don't get me wrong, I'm not bearish; I just want to clarify the underlying logic.

The rally from 91K to 96K looks fierce, but what is the driving force behind it? It's not long-term institutional positioning, nor is it a fundamental breakthrough of the project. Frankly, it's the result of the combined forces of "shorts forced to cover + retail FOMO."

Data speaks volumes. In the past 24 hours, nearly $400 million worth of short positions were liquidated across the entire network, with over 100,000 short traders forced to close their positions. These forced buy-ins are like a bomb, pushing the price up sharply. In other words, those who were bearish before were harshly squeezed by the market, and in the process of cutting losses, they actually became the "push" for the rally. Can this kind of market, supported by passive funds and emotions, last long? It's hard to say.

To judge whether this rally is real or fake, consider three signs:

First, whether it can hold steady above the breakout level. A single big bullish candle shooting straight up doesn't count as a true rally. A genuine trend reversal must stabilize at a key resistance level, forming real support.

Second, whether trading volume is supporting the move. A story of rising with decreasing volume is the easiest to spin; once good news fades, prices tend to fall back quickly.

Third, whether the main funds are building positions or unloading. You can roughly judge this by looking at the holding structure.

Currently, the logic behind this rally isn't solid. Once the emotions cool down and the passive funds are gone, will the market continue to rise? That question remains open. Beginners are most likely to chase in at this time and get caught off guard by the drop of altcoins. Instead of blindly following the trend, it's better to observe for a few days and see if the price can truly stabilize at key levels before making a decision.