Market tops often have clues to follow. In the historical trends across major exchanges, one phenomenon worth noting is the observable pattern between trading volume and the top of a bull market.

Looking at historical data can reveal some insights. During the 2007 cycle, from a low of 31 billion to a peak of 371.4 billion, the increase was 11.7 times. The situation in 2015 was similar, with a low of 2.67 trillion to a peak of 23.5 trillion, also an 11.4-fold increase. This is not a coincidence but a true reflection of market participation—trading volume is the most difficult indicator to fake.

Applying this to the current market, if we consider the bottom base around 4.8 trillion, based on this multiple, the estimated top reference point is approximately 5.28 trillion. In other words, when the total market trading volume approaches 5 trillion, it’s time to start paying attention to risk signals.

In practical terms, this number is more like an observation point. Approaching 5 trillion, it’s suitable to enhance risk awareness and closely monitor market movements. Once breaking through the critical level of 5.28 trillion, it’s necessary to seriously consider adjusting positions—at this point, greed often comes at a cost.

Market opportunities are indeed plentiful, but the real test for traders is whether they can fully exit at the right moment. This trading volume figure is worth keeping a close eye on.