Whale Cycle Loan Pitfall: The High-Position Buying Trap Behind a $39.15 Million Loss

A once $250 million whale, using rollover loans to buy the dip at a high point in August last year, has now accumulated a total loss of $39.15 million. Even more heartbreaking is that after Bitcoin broke through $97,000 today, it still sold off at a low point to cut losses. As a whale, why did some realize a profit of $48.25 million while this one is deep in a loss pit?

The complete loss path from buying high to stopping loss at a low

Original capital and ambition

This whale’s operation in August 2025 looked ambitious. It bought 1,560 WBTC at about $116,762 each, investing around $182 million; simultaneously, it bought 18,517 ETH at about $4,415 each, investing roughly $81.75 million. The total investment reached $250 million, using a rollover loan model—borrowing money with leverage to amplify gains.

But the market did not move as expected.

The bitter cost of stop-loss

Starting from November 2025, this whale began gradually cutting losses. It fully sold off its ETH holdings at about $3,049 each, selling 18,517 ETH for a loss of approximately $25.29 million. It also sold 560 WBTC at about $92,015 each, incurring a loss of roughly $13.86 million.

As of today (January 15), after BTC broke through $97,000, this whale sold another 300 WBTC for about 29.11 million USDT to repay loans, with an average sale price of approximately $97,053.

Total accumulated loss has reached $39.15 million.

Current situation: still cutting losses

Currently, this address still holds about 1,000 WBTC, valued at approximately $96.81 million at current prices. Considering its purchase cost and realized losses, this 1,000 WBTC probably cost over $100,000 each. In other words, even at around $97,000, this position remains unrealized loss.

Why rollover loans can amplify losses

The double-edged sword of leverage

Rollover loans are essentially borrowing to invest, hoping to earn more than the interest paid on the debt. This whale used a principal of $250 million plus borrowed funds, totaling about $250 million in assets. When prices rise, leverage amplifies gains; when prices fall, it also amplifies losses.

From August 2025 to now, BTC has fallen from $116,762 to just over $97,000—a decline of about 16.9%. ETH has dropped from $4,415 to around $3,300, a decline of about 25%. In such a downward move, leveraged whales see their losses multiplied several times.

The cruelty of timing

This whale chose to leverage near BTC’s all-time high, which is the riskiest move. The $116,762 in August 2025 was clearly a high point in hindsight. It did not take profits during the price rebound but held its position until November before starting to cut losses, by which time the price had fallen even further.

As a whale, why such a big difference?

In contrast, another whale’s strategy was completely different. This whale held a long position of 203,000 ETH at an entry price of about $3,147, now with an unrealized profit of $37.21 million; it also held 1,000 BTC at an entry price of $91,506, with an unrealized profit of $3.6 million. Total unrealized profit: $48.25 million.

The key differences are:

• Entry price below current price (bottom-fishing rather than high-position buying)
• More conservative strategy, no aggressive leverage
• Held the position long enough to benefit from the rebound

This loss-making whale, on the other hand, did the opposite: leveraged at a high point, lacked patience, and was forced to cut losses at the downturn.

Personal opinion: on-chain whales can also get caught

This case illustrates a harsh reality: even whales with large capital can make mistakes in timing. Tools like rollover loans are not inherently problematic, but using them at the wrong time or with excessive leverage can turn into loss amplifiers.

Notably, this whale continued to sell to cut losses even after BTC rebounded to $97,000, indicating it may have given up on the rebound expectation and was more focused on quickly repaying debt and reducing risk. This also reflects that large positions under pressure often lead to passive decision-making.

Summary

This whale’s $39.15 million loss is a typical example of high-position leverage combined with poor timing. Rollover loans are neutral tools, but using them at market highs turns them into risk amplifiers. In stark contrast are whales who open positions at low prices and hold steadily, realizing unrealized gains even in the same market.

This offers a clear lesson for ordinary investors: avoid leveraging at market highs, do not use borrowed money to bet on rebounds. Timing is always more important than leverage.