Bitcoin stalls at the $100,000 mark: lack of institutional funds triggers correction risk

Source: TokenPost Original Title: Bitcoin Stalls Near $100,000 Ahead of Resistance… Concerns Over Lack of Institutional Participation Signal Potential Adjustment Original Link: https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/cryptocurrency/323850

Bitcoin Stalls at the $100,000 Threshold

Bitcoin(BTC) has stalled in its attempt to break through the $100,000( approximately 1.4665 billion yuan) mark. The current price is near a resistance level, and market analysis suggests this is not merely a simple “distribution” phase but a genuine “correction” zone. The reaction at this resistance will be a key factor in determining the future trend.

Recently, although Bitcoin has continued to adjust after reaching highs, its overall structure remains controlled. The price shows clear reactions at higher support/resistance levels, and volatility is gradually compressing. This is often interpreted as a signal indicating a major directional move may be forthcoming.

Stepped Rise During Short-Term Correction: “Trend Reversal” or “Reaccumulation”?

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This zone has repeatedly experienced “supply reversals” and is a strong resistance area. Theoretically, rejection here is possible.

However, from a technical perspective, the “higher lows” since the November low last year are still maintained. This indicates that the sellers have not yet gained full control. As long as the price does not break below the key demand support line, this zone should be interpreted as an “adjustment range” rather than a trend reversal.

4-Hour Chart Analysis: Breaking Resistance Again Is Key

On the 4-hour candlestick chart, an ascending wedge pattern continues to rise. Recently, the price even moved into a local supply zone before entering a brief consolidation phase, and the Relative Strength Index(RSI) has peaked in the overbought zone and started to decline.

Market balance is in a delicate state. If the price strongly breaks through the horizontal resistance at $95,000( approximately 1.3931 billion yuan), surpassing the wedge top, it will open up space for further upward movement beyond the next key resistance at $100,000. Conversely, if rejected again within this zone, the price will return inside the wedge, possibly testing lower support lines.

Psychology and Liquidity: Retail-Centric Unstable Rise

Futures market data shows that recently, retail investors with smaller average order sizes have increased their participation in Bitcoin, while institutional activity remains limited compared to last year. Especially near resistance levels, the increase in retail-led trading raises the possibility of short-term “false breakouts.”

This overcrowded, retail-dominated buying could reduce market credibility. Experts note: “In this scenario, without institutional capital inflows and clear volume breakthroughs, the likelihood of a breakout above is actually lower than the chance of a downward reset.”

Market Significance: Bitcoin’s Next Step Depends on “Reaction”

Bitcoin is currently at a critical turning point. The short-term upward structure is dominant, but the sustainability of retail-led gains is limited. Without a “decisive breakout” reinforced by institutional participation, the correction may instead lay a more solid foundation for a healthier upward move.

The resistance near $100,000 and the market’s reaction to it will be a major dividing line in determining whether Bitcoin can once again surge toward its all-time high.