Catching Arbitrage Opportunities Across Prediction Markets Without Automated Tools

Prediction markets like Kalshi and major prediction platforms present interesting arbitrage angles if you know where to look. The key is spotting price discrepancies between different venues before algorithms do it for you.

Start with intelligence tools. Several data aggregators track real-time price feeds and market sentiment across prediction platforms. The better ones specialize in 1-2 specific niches rather than trying to cover everything. This focus actually works in your favor—they tend to catch nuances that broader dashboards miss.

Why does this matter? Price gaps between markets often exist because different user bases have different information quality. One platform might have better insider knowledge or more liquidity in certain event categories. By tapping into specialized tracking tools, you're essentially getting ahead of where casual traders are looking.

The manual approach involves monitoring bid-ask spreads across multiple platforms simultaneously. Yes, it's tedious. But there's an advantage: you see the context that bots might ignore. You can judge whether a price gap is real arbitrage or just temporary noise from low liquidity.

The real edge comes from understanding market structure. Some prediction niches are less efficient than others. Fewer participants mean wider spreads. Newer events often have bigger discrepancies than established ones. Once you identify these patterns, you're ready to execute when opportunities appear.