📉 XRP CRASH WARNING: FAILED RECOVERY SIGNALS 25% DOWNSIDE RISK TO $1.42

XRP is hovering in a “danger zone” as of January 26, 2026, trading at approximately $1.89 just 1% above its critical breakdown threshold. While the market appears stable on the surface, technical analysts at BeInCrypto are sounding the alarm after a key “hidden bullish divergence” failed to spark the expected rally. This failure, combined with the first net outflows from XRP ETFs in weeks and aggressive whale distribution totaling $170 million, has left the asset vulnerable to a sharp 25% correction. If the $1.85 support level snaps, XRP faces a rapid slide toward $1.70, with a deeper bearish target sitting at $1.42.

The Red Flag: Failure of the Hidden Bullish Divergence

The most concerning signal for XRP is not the selling pressure itself, but the complete absence of buyers when technical conditions were optimal.

• The Setup: Between late December and mid-January, XRP formed a higher low while the RSI hit a lower low a textbook “hidden bullish divergence” that typically precedes a bounce.
• The Failure: Instead of rallying, XRP’s price stalled and moved sideways. This failure suggests that demand has effectively dried up, leaving the price “pinned” near support. When bullish signals fail to generate upside, it often indicates that a much larger move to the downside is imminent.

Institutional and Whale Exodus: $210M in Selling Pressure

For the first time in months, the “smart money” is actively reducing its exposure to XRP, removing the primary safety net for the price.

• ETF Outflows: The week ending January 23 saw $40.5 million in net outflows from XRP ETF products, marking a sharp reversal from the steady institutional interest seen throughout late 2025.
• Whale Distribution: Wallets holding 10M to 100M XRP have offloaded approximately 90 million tokens (worth $170 million) in just the last week. This aggressive distribution by large-scale players explains why the price remains trapped below the $2.00 psychological ceiling.

The 25% Breakdown Projection: $1.85 or Bust

XRP is currently wedged into a tightening technical structure where the room for error has completely vanished.

• The Breakdown Point: A daily close below $1.85–$1.86 would officially break the wedge support.
• The Targets: Once the breakdown is activated, the first stop is the $1.70 liquidity zone. If selling momentum accelerates, the 25% downside target of $1.42 comes into play, a level not seen since the early stages of the 2025 recovery.
• The Bullish Outlier: To invalidate this bearish warning, XRP must reclaim and hold $1.98. However, without a significant return of ETF inflows, any move higher is currently viewed as a “dead cat bounce.”

Essential Financial Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The 25% crash warning for XRP and the $1.42 price target are based on technical analysis and on-chain data as of January 26, 2026. These signals are probabilistic and do not guarantee future price movement. Digital assets are subject to extreme volatility; a reversal in ETF flows or a major ecosystem announcement could invalidate this bearish thesis. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in the cryptocurrency market.

Is the $1.85 support a “generational buying opportunity” or the final exit before a 25% crash?