Year-End Tax Adjustment and the Cryptocurrency Market: Major Position Changes Starting in 2026 and the Corporate Payment Revolution

As the year-end adjustment and refund season approaches, the cryptocurrency market is witnessing unprecedented large-scale accumulation by whale addresses. This movement symbolizes the changing capital flows of traditional corporate and individual investors, while financial regulators are also facing a major turning point. Reviewing the key market movements from mid-December to the beginning of the new year reveals that, alongside rapid regulatory development, stablecoin payments are quickly becoming mainstream among major companies.

Large Year-End Fund Transfers Indicated by Whale Addresses: The Essence of Accumulation

During a single night of market decline, two large whale addresses jointly executed a purchase concentration of 4,664 ETH (approximately $14 million). According to on-chain analysts, the new address 0x779…13703 withdrew 2,656 ETH (about $7.97 million at current prices) from Binance around $2,842, and the address 0xbE3…9A42a withdrew 2,008 ETH (about $6.02 million). The latter has held a total of 6,411.4 ETH (roughly $24.83 million) over the past four months, with an average withdrawal price of approximately $3,873. Such activity by large investors suggests that corporate settlement funds and individual investor tax refunds related to year-end adjustments are flowing into the market.

Currently, ETH is trading around $3,000, with a 24-hour price movement of approximately +2.05%. The year-end buying spree by these investors reflects a resilient market sentiment heading into early 2026.

The Dangerous Tightrope of Large Position Holders: The Battle with Unrealized Losses

During the same period, a whale known as the “short position holder after the October 11 flash crash” was revealed to hold a long position of $695 million with an unrealized loss of $77.22 million. The breakdown of this unrealized loss is $65.88 million in ETH, $6.17 million in BTC, and $5.16 million in SOL.

Additionally, a whale known as CZ’s counterparty has recorded an unrealized loss of $40.3 million on a long position of $2.37 billion. This address holds 57,100 ETH (worth about $161 million, with an initial price of $3,190 and a liquidation price of $2,714), and 38.82 million XRP (worth about $69.98 million, with an initial price of $2.29 and a liquidation price of $1.63). With XRP trading around $1.90, this position is in a highly risky situation.

The loss situations of these large investors strongly emphasize to corporate and individual investors approaching year-end adjustments the importance of position management and loss realization.

Rapid Regulatory Changes: A New Financial Order Starting from Year-End

In mid-December, the US Senate advanced the confirmation process for President Trump’s nominees. Mike Seelig was approved as Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and Travis Hill was approved as Director of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Seelig inherits the proactive crypto policy-driven CFTC structure under Acting Chair Caroline Famm, taking a more leading role.

At the same time, White House AI and crypto policy chief David Sax indicated that the CLARITY Act, aimed at building the crypto market, is expected to be introduced to the Senate in January. The bill clarifies the definitions of crypto securities and commodities, and delineates responsibilities among the SEC, CFTC, and other financial regulators. After the year-end tax refund season, the market is expected to restart under a new regulatory framework in early 2026.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that an important moment for the digital euro is approaching, confirming the international expansion of the regulatory environment.

Stablecoin Payments: Major Companies Join the Shift from Year-End to 2026

Amid the surge in corporate payments associated with year-end adjustments, major financial firms are increasingly entering the stablecoin payment space.

PayPal’s USD-pegged stablecoin “PYUSD” has been officially launched on the Stable mainnet, and financial software giant Intuit has entered multi-year partnerships with Circle to integrate USDC payments into products like TurboTax and QuickBooks. This facilitates faster and lower-cost tax refunds and corporate payments.

US-based bank SoFi issued the USD-pegged stablecoin “SoFiUSD” on the Ethereum blockchain, becoming the first US national bank to issue a stablecoin on a public blockchain. Additionally, United Stables has deployed the USD stablecoin “$U” on BNB Smart Chain and Ethereum, completing integration with major DeFi protocols.

These developments indicate that the payment demand during the year-end and New Year period is rapidly shifting from traditional banking systems to blockchain-based payments that are more cost-effective and transparent. With ETH around $3,000, BTC near $89,040, and SOL approximately $126.89, the importance of stablecoin payments continues to grow.

Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook and Post-Year-End Asset Allocation Strategies

CF Benchmarks, a wholly owned subsidiary of the crypto exchange Kraken, positions Bitcoin as a core asset in long-term portfolios, noting an increasing number of institutional investors analyze BTC from a portfolio construction perspective rather than short-term price cycles.

Their price forecast models present multiple scenarios. The most conservative predicts Bitcoin expanding to account for about 16–33% of gold’s market cap, with a price of approximately $637,000 by 2035. The baseline scenario anticipates adoption by institutional investors expanding, reaching around $1.4 million by 2035. A more bullish scenario envisions Bitcoin becoming a primary global store of value, with prices approaching $2.95 million by 2035.

Allocating 2–5% of a portfolio to Bitcoin significantly improves efficiency. Companies and individuals receiving refunds during year-end adjustments can consider these long-term asset allocation strategies.

New Listings and Fundraising: Ecosystem Expansion Starting in 2026

TradeTide (TTD) was listed on Binance Alpha on December 20, symbolizing ecosystem growth from year-end into early 2026.

In DePIN projects, DAWN raised $13 million in Series B led by Polychain Capital, and Fuse Energy raised $70 million in Series B led by Lowercarbon Capital and Balderton Capital, boosting its valuation to $5 billion.

Bitwise, as a crypto index fund manager, has applied to the SEC for approval of the SUI ETF, which is expected soon. The native token NEAR of Near Protocol has been cross-chain integrated with Solana, enabling seamless multi-chain transactions.

Furthermore, crypto index fund manager Bitwise has submitted an ETF registration for SUI to the SEC, and ICE, parent company of the NYSE, is negotiating an investment in crypto payment company MoonPay, accelerating the integration of traditional finance with blockchain finance.

Market Risk Factors: High Volatility and Liquidation Risks During Year-End and New Year

According to options market analysis, approximately $23 billion worth of Bitcoin futures options are set to expire on Friday, January 31, 2024, potentially worsening already high volatility. The 30-day implied volatility has recovered to about 45%, with traders pricing in downside risks for Q1 and Q2.

Call options are concentrated at strike prices of $100,000 and $120,000, indicating expectations of price increases into early 2024, while put options are heavily weighted at $85,000, reflecting defensive positioning against declines.

In individual positions, Huang Licheng realized profits of $11,917 on long positions in BTC, ZEC, and HYPE, but suffered a loss of $359,000 on ETH longs, illustrating the strict selection during the year-end adjustment phase.

By early 2026, the market will be influenced by capital inflows and outflows from year-end adjustments, rapid regulatory changes, and expanding stablecoin payments, requiring broad asset management decisions from corporate investors to individual traders.