Bitcoin at $82,740: Candle Formation Reflects Demand Challenges

Bitcoin’s price has failed to hold at the expected levels. While BTC is currently fluctuating around $82,740, the daily candlestick patterns tell a different story than what might appear on the surface. Certain candlestick formations reveal that buyers are not attempting to push higher but are merely defending current levels. This is a fundamental difference. When momentum shifts from attack to defense, everything changes.

Technical signals reveal weakness in buyer strength

Over the past three days, Bitcoin’s daily candles have formed a well-known pattern: very thin bodies with long wicks extending upward and downward. This candlestick pattern is called a “Doji,” indicating sharp indecision rather than healthy balance.

In each session, sellers try to push strongly downward. Buyers intervene but with delay and less force than expected. The result: no one is truly in control. This behavior occurred precisely at an ascending wedge support line, a technical formation defined as a decreasing pressure zone. The ascending wedge theoretically leans upward, but price movement becomes increasingly choked. Historically, when support breaks in this pattern, prices collapse quickly.

The 20-day exponential moving average was a critical turning point. On January 20, Bitcoin lost this key support. This indicator, which gives more weight to recent prices, is sensitive to short-term changes. The last clear breakdown occurred on December 12, when the price dropped about 8 percent. This time, support was weaker: Bitcoin declined only about 5 percent before stabilizing. The doji candlestick formations do not show a true reversal but a temporary surrender by buyers trying to prevent further decline.

Frankly, this is not usual hesitation between bulls and bears. This is a sign of weakening momentum. Buyers are not trying to rally; they are just delaying a larger fall.

On-chain data: long-term buyers slow support

On-chain data confirms this idea. Wallets holding Bitcoin for 155 days or more, known as long-term holders, are still on the net selling side. This group can be tracked using the net position change metric, which records the amount of coins added or removed over time.

In the last two weeks, this metric remained positive, explaining why Bitcoin hasn’t collapsed yet. But more importantly, this buying activity is losing momentum rapidly. On January 19, long-term holders added about 22,618 BTC. Four days later, on January 23, net daily buying dropped to around 17,109 BTC. That’s a 24 percent decrease in buying intensity in just four days.

The message is clear: long-term holders haven’t stopped buying, but they are doing so with much less force. Support is weak and decreasing. This aligns perfectly with the candlestick formations seen on the daily chart.

Miner pressure intensifies at a critical moment

The problem is that downward pressure is coming from multiple sources. While support from long-term holders weakens, miners are selling much larger quantities. The net change in miner holdings tracks the change over 30 days in the supply held by miners. When this value becomes more negative, it indicates miners are selling more.

On January 9, miners were reducing their holdings by about 335 BTC. Two weeks later, on January 23, selling pressure surged to 2,826 BTC. An increase of over eight times in miner selling activity, all within two weeks.

The reason is straightforward: network fees are collapsing. In May 2025, miners earned about 194 BTC per month in fees. By January 2026, this had dropped to just 59 BTC. Nearly a 70 percent decline in revenue over 8 months. When fees fall, miners are forced to sell more Bitcoin to cover operational costs. The current selling pressure appears to stem directly from this dynamic.

Fortunately, miner selling strength has not yet reached alarming levels. But the trend is very clear.

Whale behavior: early distribution rather than panic selling

Adding to this mix is whale activity—large wallets. From January 9 to January 22, the number of whales steadily increased. After January 22, the figures began to decline slightly.

This small dip may not seem alarming, but it indicates an important point: early distribution of large wallets rather than aggressive selling. Major holders are gradually retreating. In the context of weakening support from miners and declining long-term buying, this adds to downward pressure.

The market now hangs on a knife’s edge. Everything depends on the next price levels.

Critical levels that will determine the next move

At the current price around $82,740, Bitcoin needs a strong daily close above $91,000—about a 10 percent move—to regain the 20-day EMA. This would ease immediate pressure and suggest buyers are regaining real control.

However, the more likely near-term scenario is that if Bitcoin closes daily below $88,500—about 7 percent below current levels—it will return to support at the ascending wedge. At this point, downside targets open quickly.

Key levels to watch:

• $84,300 first: the first real support level
• $77,300 later: the expected target of the ascending wedge, where the price could drop another 13 percent from current levels

If long-term holder buying weakens further and miner selling accelerates, these levels will become even more critical rapidly.

The conclusion is clear: the candlestick formations we see are not just transient hesitation. They reflect a real confrontation where buyers are losing strength at the same time downward pressure from multiple directions is intensifying.