Whale Activity in the US Triggers Bitcoin Drop, Not ETF Factors

CafeMinor · 2026-01-31T01:05:05+00:00

The sharp price movement of Bitcoin is attributed to selling pressure from large whales in the spot trading market, rather than ETF inflows. Analysis reveals significant whale activity on platforms like Coinbase, indicating that market behavior is driven by independent whale addresses, not institutional ETF dynamics. This pattern highlights the speculative nature of transactions rather than a long-term trend reversal, suggesting that the recent downturn reflects micro-level dynamics rather than fundamental shifts in the crypto asset landscape.

CafeMinor

2026-01-31 01:05:05

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The sharp price movements of Bitcoin are not caused by ETF fund flows, but rather by selling pressure from a group of large whales operating on the spot trading platform. According to analysis from CryptoQuant, US whale activity shows a pattern of massive sales concentrated in large holder wallets, indicating a structured and non-random market behavior.

CPG Signal Indicates Whale Activity on Coinbase

Data reveals one of the strongest Coinbase Premium Gap (CPG) signals in recent months, a technical indicator reflecting heavy selling activity on US-listed trading platforms. CPG measures the price difference between Coinbase and the global market—when this signal spikes, it usually indicates large holders are dumping or accumulating on a large scale on selected exchanges.

Analysis shows that this movement is entirely driven by whale wallets operating independently of institutional ETF structures. During the selling activity, Bitcoin ETF products are not actively trading, proving that the selling pressure purely originates from the spot market sector—not from structured fund flow mechanisms.

ETF Excluded from Suspect List

Rejecting the ETF factor as the main cause is an important finding for institutional investors. Although ETFs are often associated with significant volatility in the crypto market, on-chain data this time shows the opposite phenomenon: independent whale addresses are the dominant actors in the speed of Bitcoin sales. This strongly indicates that market movements are driven more by speculative behavior from concentrated holders rather than systematic repositioning by institutional portfolios.

Repeating Pattern: Whales and Short-Term Volatility

Whale activities like this are not new phenomena in every market cycle. Historical analysis shows that sales led by giant wallets often reappear with predictable patterns, especially during short-term turbulence. However, these patterns rarely indicate a long-term trend reversal—more often, they are profit-taking actions or capital repositioning within weekly to monthly timeframes.

Therefore, although today’s Bitcoin decline feels significant, the whale footprints suggest that this shift reflects more of a micro-level speculative dynamic rather than a fundamental change signal for the overall crypto asset.

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