The 6 transformation vectors of the crypto market in 2026 according to Mercado Bitcoin analysis

Mercado Bitcoin (MB), Latin America’s largest cryptocurrency trading platform headquartered in São Paulo, published a trend report mapping the main drivers of sector evolution through 2026. The term “MB” specifically refers to this Brazilian exchange that has established itself as a reference in the Latin American market. The document presents six strategic axes which, according to Mercado Bitcoin’s analysis, are expected to redefine the dynamics of digital asset markets in the coming months.

Bitcoin consolidates its role as a global store of value and challenges gold’s supremacy

According to Mercado Bitcoin’s analysis, BTC could reach a participation equivalent to 14% of the total gold market capitalization by the end of 2026. Currently, this proportion stands at 5.65%, which would mean a price increase of over 100% for Bitcoin if this scenario materializes.

MB bases this projection on a valuation methodology called “Bitcoin Valuation Framework,” developed in partnership with researchers from the University of California (UCLA). Unlike traditional cash flow models applied to monetary assets, this approach uses the Total Addressable Market (TAM), taking gold as a benchmark and estimating what percentage of this market Bitcoin could capture under different adoption scenarios.

The transition of Bitcoin from a speculative asset to an institutional store of value is already observable. Corporate treasuries have accumulated over 1.09 million Bitcoins, demonstrating that adoption has moved beyond niche markets. Bitcoin’s characteristics—digital nature, lack of geographical barriers, and decentralized custody—position it as a superior alternative to gold for investors seeking value refuges without the traditional logistical challenges of storage and transportation.

Stablecoins: from trading tools to global-scale payment instruments

Mercado Bitcoin projects that the stablecoin sector will reach a market capitalization of US$ 500 billion in 2026, representing nearly 60% growth compared to current levels. This expansion will be particularly driven by the growth of stablecoins indexed to currencies other than the US dollar, responding to regional demands across various markets.

Stablecoins have evolved significantly from their initial conception as mere hedging mechanisms on trading platforms. Today, they function as critical liquidity infrastructure, enabling fast and secure capital flows without exposure to the volatility of other digital assets. The sector already demonstrated this trend in 2025, when total capitalization grew approximately 50% annually, reaching US$ 307 billion. According to DeFiLlama data, USDT (Tether) maintains market dominance with 60.5% of total share.

This trend is supported by increasing regulatory clarity, especially in the United States, where regulators have begun establishing defined frameworks for stablecoin operations. Simultaneously, regional stablecoins are gaining relevance in jurisdictions seeking to offer alternatives to the US dollar, expanding use cases beyond traditional crypto markets.

Altcoin ETFs gain regulatory strength and attract massive institutional capital

After the end of 2025, when US regulators began approving exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, the altcoin segment experienced accelerated inflows. XRP, Solana, and Chainlink led this wave of institutionalization.

Numbers reflect this movement: XRP ETFs manage approximately US$ 1.47 billion in assets under management, while Solana funds totaled US$ 1.09 billion according to SoSoValue data. Mercado Bitcoin’s projection points to a total market capitalization of at least US$ 10 billion in this segment by the end of 2026, with XRP and SOL responsible for about 80% of new inflows.

This trend marks a fundamental step in the institutionalization of the crypto market. When traditional investors gain access through regulated and familiar structures (ETFs), the psychological barrier to capital allocation is significantly reduced. MB’s analysis considers only altcoin funds listed on regulated markets, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Tokenization of real assets: how blockchain modernizes financial infrastructure

The market for tokenized real-world assets is expected to experience explosive growth, with global volume expanding by 200%, surpassing US$ 54 billion in 2026. This transformation has become possible thanks to regulatory advances achieved in 2025 in major financial markets.

The European Union approved frameworks allowing significant volumes of tokenized transactions on permissioned blockchains, while US regulators recognized blockchain-based records as valid for transferring ownership of assets. These institutional changes pave the way for mass adoption.

Major global asset managers have already begun implementing this strategy: BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree launched their own tokenized funds, while other institutions are conducting exploratory studies for future launches. Mercado Bitcoin identifies these developments as clear evidence that tokenization is transitioning from a theoretical concept to practical implementation, offering tangible gains in efficiency and accessibility for both issuers and investors.

Prediction markets emerge as a segment of explosive growth

According to Mercado Bitcoin’s analysis, prediction markets represent the fastest-growing segment within the crypto universe. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allow participants to trade contracts based on the probability of future events—ranging from presidential elections and sporting competitions to climate scenarios and entertainment happenings.

MB projects that total capital locked in prediction markets could reach US$ 20 billion by the end of 2026, jumping from an current base below US$ 1 billion. This 25x growth in two years will be catalyzed by major global events such as the 2026 World Cup, electoral cycles in large economies, and the expansion of specialized thematic markets.

The native peer-to-peer model of these markets—eliminating traditional intermediaries—and the perfectly aligned incentives between users and platforms create virtuous growth dynamics. As these markets establish themselves as legitimate tools for price discovery and hedging, institutional and retail capital allocation to this segment is expected to accelerate exponentially.

Autonomous AI agents revolutionize onchain operations

Integrated AI into blockchain infrastructure emerges as a catalyst for unprecedented onchain activity. AI agents designed to make autonomous decisions and execute transactions are beginning to utilize new technical standards such as x402 and ERC-8004, developed specifically to meet demands for transparency, traceability, and micropayment processing at scale.

According to Mercado Bitcoin’s projection, the daily trading volume by such AI agents should exceed US$ 1 million daily in 2026, representing a 4x growth compared to current levels. These agents operate as autonomous programs capable of executing complex strategies, optimizing liquidity, and rebalancing portfolios without direct human intervention.

This transformation represents a new paradigm of interaction with blockchain infrastructure, where intelligent machines become active participants in the ecosystem, generating substantial transaction volumes and continuously refining market mechanics. The synergy between AI and blockchain enhances both technologies, creating opportunities for innovation that are still largely unexplored.

The overall picture: six forces shaping the crypto sector

Mercado Bitcoin’s analysis consolidates these six trends into a coherent framework of crypto market evolution. Each of these forces—from Bitcoin’s consolidation as a global store of value to the autonomy of AI agents—does not operate in isolation but synergistically and mutually reinforcing.

The passage of 2026 marks a tipping point where the crypto industry ceases to orbit solely around speculation or technological niches, moving toward deep integration into the global financial infrastructure. As these six trends materialize, the sector cements its role as a permanent structural component of the international financial system, thus confirming the vision expressed by Mercado Bitcoin in its trend report.