Eastmoney Financial Breakfast Wednesday, February 4

Daily Highlights

Central No. 1 Document Released:

The Central No. 1 Document for 2026 was published on February 3rd, marking the first Central No. 1 Document of the “14th Five-Year Plan.” The “Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Rural Revitalization” states that anchoring agricultural and rural modernization as the main focus, with the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas as the overarching goal, guided by learning and applying the “Ten Thousand Project” experience, driven by reform and innovation, to improve the effectiveness of policies that strengthen, benefit, and enrich farmers, safeguard national food security, continuously consolidate and expand poverty alleviation achievements, and enhance rural industrial development, rural construction, and rural governance. The goal is to develop agriculture into a large modern industry, ensure rural areas have modern living conditions, and make farmers’ lives more prosperous and better, providing a foundational support for advancing Chinese-style modernization.

Rumor Debunked: VAT Rate Adjustment:

According to Xinhua News Agency, recent rumors have circulated on some online platforms about adjusting VAT rates for industries such as gaming and finance. It was mentioned that the VAT rate for finance, internet value-added services, and others might be increased, with the gaming industry’s VAT potentially rising from 6% to 32%. Are these rumors true? On the 3rd, authoritative experts and industry insiders interviewed by reporters confirmed that these rumors are not factual.

Shanghai Gold Exchange Announcement:

The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the margin levels and price limit ratios for silver deferred contracts. Starting from the close settlement on February 3, 2026 (Tuesday), the margin requirement for Ag(T+D) contracts will be adjusted from 26% to 23%, and the daily price limit from 25% to 22%. Additionally, for gold contracts, margin levels and price limits will be adjusted from February 4, 2026 (Wednesday) at close settlement: margin ratio for Au(T+D) contracts will increase from 16% to 17%, and the price limit from 15% to 16%; the margin per lot for CAu99.99 contracts will be increased from 120,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan.

People’s Bank of China Reverse Repo:

The PBOC will continue to conduct 3-month fixed-term reverse repurchase operations, injecting medium-term liquidity into the market. On February 3rd, the PBOC announced that on February 4th, it will conduct 8 trillion yuan of reverse repos via fixed-rate, multi-price bidding to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a 3-month (91 days) maturity.

Silver Futures Trading Adjustment:

According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange announcement, starting from the close settlement on February 4, 2026, the trading limits and margin requirements for silver futures will be adjusted as follows: the daily price limit for listed silver contracts will be set at 19%, with a margin requirement for position trading at 20%, and for general trading at 21%.

New A-share Accounts in January:

On February 3rd, data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange website showed that in January 2026, there were 4.9158 million new A-share accounts, an 89% increase compared to 2.5967 million in December 2025, and a 213% increase compared to 1.57 million in January 2025. Among them, individual investors accounted for 4.9053 million accounts, and institutional investors for 10,554 accounts. The number of new A-share accounts has become one of the most sensitive “barometers” reflecting market sentiment. Industry insiders believe that the nearly 90% month-on-month growth in new accounts in January indicates that market enthusiasm has sharply increased since the beginning of the year, on top of the year-end baseline.

Crude Oil and Other Futures Trading Adjustments:

According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange announcement, starting from the close settlement on February 5, 2026, the limits and margin ratios for crude oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and No. 20 rubber futures will be adjusted: the daily price limit for these listed contracts will be set at 9%, with a margin requirement for position trading at 10%, and for general trading at 11%.

Domestic Oil Price Increase:

On February 3rd, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00. According to the Price Monitoring Center of the NDRC, during this cycle (January 20 to February 2), international oil prices first rose and then fell. Starting from 24:00 on February 3rd, retail prices for gasoline and diesel will be increased by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively. On average nationwide, the prices for 92-octane and 95-octane gasoline, and No. 0 diesel will each increase by about 0.16, 0.17, and 0.17 yuan per liter. Based on this, filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost 8 yuan more.

Hot Topics

Space Photovoltaics:

UBS Group recently forecasted that global space photovoltaic demand will reach 0.3 GW in 2026, and is expected to soar to 115 GW by 2035, with a ten-year growth of over 300 times. UBS also stated that if perovskite-silicon tandem batteries (45% market share) and P-type HJT batteries (50% market share) dominate the market by 2035, with unit costs of $8-9 per watt, the global market size could reach $1.1 trillion.

Commercial Space:

According to media reports, Dongfang Space’s self-developed “Gravity No. 2” is a medium-to-large liquid recoverable launch vehicle designed for large-scale satellite networking and commercial high-orbit launches. It features extreme cost performance and core-level recovery technology. The rocket is expected to complete its first flight by mid-2026.

Artificial Intelligence + Agriculture:

The Central No. 1 Document “Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Rural Revitalization” emphasizes improving the efficiency of agricultural technological innovation. It advocates developing new agricultural productivity suited to local conditions, promoting the integration of artificial intelligence with agriculture, expanding applications such as drones, IoT, and robots, and accelerating key technological innovations in agricultural biological manufacturing.

Optical Fiber and Cables:

According to media reports, based on Huatai Securities’ February 2nd research report, in January 2026, the price of G.652.D single-mode optical fiber in China hit a nearly seven-year high, exceeding 35 yuan per fiber-kilometer on average. The firm believes the price increase is mainly due to changes in industry supply and demand: on the demand side, global AI data centers and drones are driving high demand for optical fibers; on the supply side, upstream key materials like fiber preform capacity may not be able to quickly increase in the short term.

Copper:

Deputy Secretary-General of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Duan Shaofu, stated on the 3rd that improving the copper resource reserve system involves expanding national copper strategic reserves and exploring commercial reserve mechanisms, such as trialing state-owned backbone enterprises with fiscal subsidies. Besides reserves of refined copper, it is also possible to include trade-volume-heavy, easily liquidated copper concentrates into the reserve scope.

Data Center Power Supplies:

Industry research reports indicate that the global AI investment boom is rapidly boosting the demand for power infrastructure in data centers (AIDC). According to IEA forecasts, from 2025 to 2030, global IT load will increase by a total of 106 GW. Whether using grid power or on-site generation, the distribution system is crucial for ensuring efficient and stable power supply for AIDC.

Chemical Industry:

Listed companies’ 2025 performance forecasts show that the petrochemical and chemical industry is gradually recovering. Industry analysts note that the macro cycle for chemicals remains unchanged, with a temporary decline in risk appetite, leading to volatility in the sector. Reasons include: 1) drag from the correction in nonferrous metals; 2) short-term cooling of Iran-related issues and falling oil and US natural gas prices; 3) rapid short-term gains earlier. Overall, the sector’s risk appetite is temporarily declining due to macroeconomic adjustments.

Company News

Cambricon: On February 3rd, Cambricon issued a solemn statement denying recent online reports about the company organizing small-scale exchanges. The company has never organized any small-scale exchanges recently, nor issued any annual or quarterly revenue guidance data. Please refer to the official disclosures for accurate information. The company’s R&D progress is smooth, and operations are steady. Investors are reminded that all company matters are based on official disclosures. Please improve your ability to discern information, avoid spreading or believing unverified or false information. The company reserves the right to pursue legal action against any fabricated or disseminated false information.

Aerospace Development: The company focuses on aerospace defense information technology, emphasizing core business development, including blue army systems and equipment, new generation communication, and command equipment. Its subsidiary, Aerospace Tianmu (Chongqing) Satellite Technology Co., Ltd., mainly engages in commercial low-earth orbit satellite operations and data services. Its revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 accounts for less than 1% of the company’s total revenue, with minimal impact on overall performance.

Kweichow Moutai: In January 2026, the company repurchased 329,800 shares, accounting for 0.0263% of total shares, at a total cost of 451 million yuan. By the end of January 2026, cumulative repurchases reached 416,900 shares, or 0.0333% of total shares, with a total expenditure of 571 million yuan.

FAW Jiefang: The company plans to use up to 10 billion yuan of its own funds for entrusted wealth management, purchasing low-risk, principal-safe, and stable-yield financial products from financial institutions.

Han Jian Heshan: The company plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire 99.9978% of Xingfu New Materials, and to issue shares to no more than 35 qualified investors for supporting funds. Trading will resume. After this transaction, the company’s main business will expand to include research, production, and sales of aromatic products.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL): As of January 31, 2026, the company had repurchased a total of 15.9908 million A-shares via centralized bidding, representing 0.36% of the total A-share capital, with a maximum transaction price of 317.63 yuan/share, a minimum of 231.50 yuan/share, totaling 4.386 billion yuan.

Jiashitang: On February 2nd, shareholders Everbright Industrial and Everbright Health signed a share transfer agreement with China Beijing Tongrentang (Group) Co., Ltd. (referred to as “Tongrentang Group”), transferring 41.118 million and 41.876 million shares respectively. After the transaction, the company’s controlling shareholder will change to Tongrentang Group, and the actual controller will change to the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. The stock will resume trading on February 4th.

Qixiang Tengda: Recently, the company’s controlling subsidiary, Qilu Keli Investment, completed construction of an 8,000-ton/year high-performance catalytic new materials project, which has entered trial operation.

Juguang Technology: Despite recent improvements in the optical communications industry, as of the third quarter of 2025, revenue from optical communications accounts for only about 7% of the company’s total revenue, and has not yet become a core performance pillar.

Xuguang Electronics: Plans to raise no more than 1 billion yuan for capacity expansion of high-voltage (72.5kV and above) vacuum arc extinguishers, plasma heating high-power emitter tubes, gyrotrons, and transient energy management switches, among other projects, to supplement working capital.

Nepo Mining Machinery: The company held a board meeting today, approving the proposal to terminate the subscription of shares in Swiss Veritas Resources AG, and agrees to give up investment in the Colombia Alacran copper-gold-silver mine project.

Click to see more major announcements of listed companies>>

Global Markets

Iran Situation: Just as global markets thought the next US-Iran confrontation would wait until the Istanbul talks on Friday, regional tensions suddenly escalated on Tuesday. According to CCTV News, U.S. Central Command spokesperson Tim Hawkins disclosed that U.S. fighter jets from the Lincoln carrier strike group shot down an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea. Hours later, a U.S.-operated chemical tanker “Stena Imperative” flying the U.S. flag was approached and demanded to be boarded by Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Bond Market Overview

Shibor: On February 3rd, the overnight Shibor was 1.3170%, down 4.80 basis points; the 7-day was 1.4880%, up 0.30 basis points; the 14-day was 1.5110%, up 0.20 basis points; the January average was 1.5500%, unchanged from the previous day. The March Shibor was 1.5859%, down 0.30 basis points.

Euro Bonds: At the end of European trading, the German 10-year government bond yield rose 2.3 basis points to 2.891%, trading between 2.874% and 2.903%. The 2-year yield increased 0.9 basis points to 2.123%; the 30-year yield rose 3.4 basis points to 3.550%. The 2/10-year spread widened by 1.367 basis points to +76.553 basis points. The UK 10-year yield rose 1.1 basis points; the 2-year rose 0.5 basis points; the 30-year increased 1.4 basis points; the 50-year increased 1.9 basis points. The 2/10-year spread widened by 0.610 basis points to +80.816 basis points. France’s 10-year yield increased by 1.7 basis points, Italy’s by 1.7, Spain’s by 2.3, and Greece’s by 1.2.

U.S. Bonds: In New York, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 0.79 basis points to 4.2695%. The 2-year yield decreased 0.41 basis points to 3.5675%; the 30-year yield fell 0.83 basis points to 4.9035%. The 2/10-year spread narrowed by 0.387 basis points to +69.987 basis points. The yield on the 10-year TIPS dropped 1.82 basis points to 1.9165%; the 2-year TIPS yield fell 1.52 basis points to 0.7359%; the 30-year TIPS yield decreased 1.68 basis points to 2.6221%.

Commodity Futures

Domestic Futures: On February 3rd, domestic commodity futures closed mixed. Silver in Shanghai fell over 16%, tin dropped more than 6%, crude oil declined over 4%, caustic soda and LU fuel oil fell over 2%, nickel and iron ore declined over 1%, while coke and eggs slightly decreased; palladium rose over 8%, polysilicon increased over 6%, European shipping line rose over 5%, lithium carbonate up over 4%, platinum up over 3%, copper and international copper rose over 2%, and apple and Shanghai gold edged higher.

International Metals: LME copper rose $586 to $13,478/ton. LME aluminum increased $50 to $3,106/ton. LME zinc up $15 to $3,338/ton. LME lead unchanged at $1,964/ton. LME nickel up $620 to $17,447/ton. LME tin increased $3,531 to $50,122/ton. LME cobalt unchanged at $56,290/ton.

International Agricultural Products: In New York, Bloomberg grain index rose 0.43% to 29.1201 points. CBOT corn futures up 0.70%, wheat futures up 0.28%. Soybean futures up 0.61% at $10.6675 per bushel, soybean meal down 0.81%, soybean oil up 2.50%. CBOT lean hogs up 1.73%, live cattle up 0.94%, feeder cattle up 0.53%. ICE raw sugar futures up 2.59%, ICE white sugar up 2.88%. Arabica coffee futures down 5.43%, “C” coffee futures down 6.04%. Robusta coffee futures down 5.44%. NY cocoa futures up 1.31% at $4,265/ton. London cocoa futures up 2.74%. Chicago WCE canola futures up 0.78%. ICE cotton futures down 0.59%.

Forex Market

Renminbi: On February 3rd, onshore RMB closed at 6.93620 at 16:30 Beijing time, up 151 points from the previous trading day. Offshore RMB at 18:00 was 6.93529, up 78.1 points. The onshore/offshore RMB spread at 18:00 was 24.1.

RMB Foreign Exchange Swaps: As of 16:30 Beijing time on February 3rd, the 6-month USD/CNY swap was -670 points, and the 1-year swap was -1290 points.

Economic Calendar