Thai Market Rallies Despite Global Headwinds as Oil Prices Surge

The Thai stock market extended its rebound trajectory this week, building on recent momentum even as geopolitical tensions weighed on regional sentiment. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index held steady around the 1,314-point level, reflecting a delicate balance between domestic strength and international uncertainty. While recovery efforts continue, traders remain cautious about the path ahead, caught between optimism about the local economy and concerns about global flash points.

SET Index Holds Ground Amid Mixed Signals

The SET index edged up 2.75 points or 0.21 percent, settling at 1,314.39 after a trading range between 1,309.65 and 1,323.57. Trading activity remained robust with 7.555 billion shares worth 50.901 billion baht changing hands. The market displayed its typical characteristics of consolidation—245 stocks declined while 177 advanced, with 229 remaining unchanged. This pattern suggests investors are cherry-picking opportunities rather than pursuing broad-based buying, a sign of selective market positioning in uncertain times.

Technology and Property Stocks Drive Gains, Finance Sector Retreats

A clear divergence emerged across sectors on the trading day. Property and technology stocks delivered the gains that pushed the index higher, with names like Advanced Info jumping 2.33 percent and Asset World rallying 2.83 percent. However, these advances were partially offset by weakness across finance, food, and service sectors. Banks faced particular pressure, as Bangkok Bank retreated 1.56 percent, Siam Commercial Bank fell 0.36 percent, and TTB Bank declined 1.49 percent. Energy stocks also showed signs of strain, with Energy Absolute plunging 3.50 percent despite oil prices strengthening globally.

Among notable movers, BTS Group tumbled 2.56 percent while Charoen Pokphand Foods dropped 1.87 percent, reflecting investor hesitation about consumer-facing businesses amid macroeconomic questions. Conversely, PTT Exploration and Production vaulted 1.28 percent, benefiting from rising crude prices. The sector rotation underscores a market caught between growth optimism and safety concerns.

Global Markets Paint Picture of Caution

Asian markets took their cues from an uncertain Wall Street performance. The U.S. indices delivered mixed results—the Dow fell 285.30 points or 0.58 percent to close at 49,098.30, while the NASDAQ managed a modest 65.22-point gain or 0.28 percent to end at 23,501.24. The S&P 500 barely moved, adding just 2.26 points or 0.03 percent to finish at 6,915.61. For the week, the Dow shed 0.5 percent, the S&P fell 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ eased 0.1 percent.

This cautious tone reflected traders’ careful monitoring of geopolitical developments. The recent easing of Greenland-related tensions provided temporary relief, but fresh worries about U.S.-Iran relations quickly filled the void. Reports of an American naval armada heading toward the Middle East rekindled concerns about supply disruption scenarios.

Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Supply Fears

Crude oil markets responded dramatically to escalating regional tensions. West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery jumped $1.75 or 2.95 percent to $61.11 per barrel, reflecting fresh war premium concerns about Middle Eastern supply chains. These price movements typically benefit energy-exporting nations like Thailand through improved trade dynamics, though elevated oil costs also introduce inflation headwinds for import-dependent economies.

The interplay between geopolitical risk and energy prices creates a complex backdrop for Thai market participants. While oil exporters gain from higher prices, domestic inflation pressures could constrain consumer spending and corporate profitability across multiple sectors—an outcome the Thai market is already pricing in through selective sector strength.

Outlook: Thai Markets Navigate Global Crosscurrents

The Thai stock market’s near-term trajectory hinges on whether global tensions escalate further or stabilize. The SET index’s resilience around 1,314 points suggests institutional support, but sector divergence reveals underlying caution about the macroeconomic environment. Investors should monitor geopolitical headlines closely, as any dramatic shift in Middle East tensions could quickly cascade through Asian markets, including Thai equities.