[Red Envelope] February 4 Review: The market is strong with reduced volume pushing higher, sector themes are weak and accelerating rotation, during chaotic periods, it's important to pay attention to the rhythm!

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Morning bidding information:

1. Hanjian Heshan’s largest order, positive for a one-word rebound after suspension, but the order isn’t large.
2. Minbao Guangdian’s positive for a one-word rebound after suspension, with a smaller closing order compared to previous.
3. Kailong Gaoke, positive for a one-word rebound after suspension, robotics + automotive.
4. Juli, one-word, with additional orders after 20 minutes.
5. Shuangliang, one-word, sharp decrease in orders between 15-20 minutes, with additional orders after 20 minutes.
6. Jiashitang, positive for a one-word rebound after suspension, orders sharply reduced, weak close.

End-of-day bidding information:

1. Huadian Science and Industry, hitting the limit-up at the close? Energy, Beijing.
2. New coordinates, indicating a new regional hype?
3. Guangnong Sugar Industry, Guangxi, agriculture and sugar industry.

Check the risk/opportunity alerts and analysis for the bidding preset:

1. Before the market opens in the morning, it was indicated that both the US and Japan are down, but futures rebounded. So today, there is an expectation of a rebound in non-ferrous metals, but whether this expectation is used up at the open or held until during the session needs to be distinguished clearly. Refer to Leo’s anti-nuclear day and Haige’s anti-nuclear day: if a floor opens at one level, then the recovery expectation remains, and high-quality chips are still present, the risk is greater than the opportunity. Conversely, if it opens below mid-level with a rush for chips, then no good chips to pull, so the opening will be fulfilled. In such cases, the best is to eat debt arbitrage. Watch out for a reversal and multiple sell-offs. Last time Haige’s arrow debt was similar; if you haven’t seen it, backtest the same day or review the weekend plan episode three.
   So, before the market opens, think about which sectors can follow the trend after the non-ferrous metals are unblocked. If non-ferrous metals recover strongly, the beneficiaries are naturally the internal players, and the tech sector is negatively affected. If non-ferrous metals recover weakly with multiple sell-offs, then the tech sector benefits.
   But also consider that if aerospace only rotates yesterday, a new safe-haven theme might strengthen. I thought it was Huangtai fermenting wine, which indeed followed that path, but it went into coal instead. Be aware of this switch. If you have a position, don’t do it; switch to the updated coal theme. This indicates funds are not optimistic about the current market and have no intention to attack, fitting the pattern of volume reduction but index rise.
   It also hints that if it’s just rotation, the strong aerospace yesterday might continue briefly in the morning and then exit, switching to another theme. So, lower expectations: if it needs to be realized, do so; in rotation markets, either hold steadily without breaking or switch rhythmically.

2. At 9:15, it was indicated that Hanjian is the largest order, so it’s worth watching. If the order at 25 minutes is large, see who can absorb the energy. Pay attention to the rebound strategies, for example, Minbao’s one-word, which gave a position to absorb energy. Review previous positive rebounds for reference.

3. At 9:18, it was indicated to group positive rebounds together to preliminarily assess which themes are stronger or weaker today. Shuangliang Energy initially had a large order, but the space photovoltaic pull was not very sincere. Every time Shuangliang rushes, it repeatedly hits the limit down, so bonds must be considered for cost-effectiveness, especially if the sector exceeds expectations.
   Smart agriculture is a positive news from Document No. 1, but it’s usually not recognized long-term. If it can’t open with a one-word at the start, it’s definitely a blow to the sector.
   Yowang has been mentioned several times; each time AI tests this stock, orders are canceled within seconds before 20 minutes. If you see this and enter bidding, you’ll suffer a big loss today. It’s better to wait for the open; rotation markets mean no one is necessarily the strongest.
   Then there’s Beijing. Yesterday, a bunch of one-word orders appeared, but today none can open. I suspect Jingtou is just riding Hanjian’s energy for turnover, a one-day theme.

4. At 9:20, it was indicated that silver’s closing orders are not large, meaning a breakout is expected. Also, be cautious of Haige’s situation—multiple sell-offs. It finally hit over 6, which is okay, but Hunan Gold seems a bit exaggerated, increasing the expectation of realization. Yesterday’s recoveries are still being sold today.

5. At 9:24, it was indicated that Juli has order addition actions, so aerospace has some ideas, but it’s uncertain if it’s a new logic before a new cycle. It’s seen as rotation, meaning there’s a chance to strengthen in the morning. Early movers can set the pattern; latecomers can do debt arbitrage. Even small gains are still gains, and they won’t be trapped.
   Photovoltaics’ bidding was below expectations. Yesterday, photovoltaics were quite strong, but the open still showed Shuangliang one-word, with additional orders after sharp reduction. Is the market cap of Shuangliang enough? Under this logic, there’s no need to rush for bonds at open; only Shuangliang’s order addition is a real buy point. A weak close with a potential opening board makes the game too costly. The buy point appears when the rebound adds orders.
   Hengdian’s weak close was previously discussed; it’s either ready for turnover or to be trapped. Giving way to Huangtai, which also gave way, either to Hangdian at the limit or switching to coal for safe-haven.
   At 25 minutes, Hanjian is the largest, but the sharp decrease is significant. It also absorbed Jingtou’s energy, but it’s probably unnecessary now; energy isn’t very strong.

6. From yesterday’s logic, the continuous board pattern suggests a chance for Wanfeng to yield, Huangtai to block Hengdian, and this script could evolve. The main business will eventually ferment, so targets with clear main business can be considered for low-entry opportunities.
   Non-ferrous metals are grabbing chips, so check whether it’s Leo’s script or Haige’s script. Referencing the previous Tianjian bond play: after a high-inertia surge, a drop below the open price indicates insufficient recovery.
   Photovoltaics and aerospace are also competing. According to the seesaw logic, at least one side is deceiving—either the internal cut helps non-ferrous, or external cut continues to kill non-ferrous, or a new safe-haven theme opens. Tech rotation + multiple kills in non-ferrous.

Today’s operations:

1. Entered the wine sector early based on preset logic, reasons: 1. Moutai opened high, mostly defensive logic; 2. Huangtai has a block expectation, so a main business fermentation is expected; 3. Non-ferrous metals recovered yesterday, aerospace surged but faced resistance, so a new safe-haven logic is present, but the sector isn’t favored, switched to coal, damn.
2. Sold Kangqiang yesterday after a morning surge; it turned red on its own, no other small stocks followed, so no point holding. This also shows the advantage of recognition; it’s likely to give opportunities to go, not always stuck in water. Rotation markets require clear recognition.
3. Juli added orders, Tianjian arbitrage.
4. Shuangliang played a bit in the afternoon, no profit or loss, and left. Jingke bonds are a better choice, after all, I disclosed it.

Today’s review:
First, some issues and info during the session:

1. Explain the closing rush for chips: it’s either genuine desire to buy, grabbing chips, or using small money to push up and induce more, then sell the next day. The online platform is quite obvious, so I reply that high open confirmation is needed; otherwise, the probability of inducing more is high. Observe the order situation after bidding ends—whether it’s pushing upward or directly selling.

2. A brother asked when to see the second wave of non-ferrous metals. Think about the logic of the first wave: after the hype, is there anything new to stimulate? The first wave’s strength mainly came from futures, right? Big surge, so the first wave has already hyped the big surge logic. Will the second wave recognize and eat all the pressure? It’s quite difficult.

3. Approaching noon, it was mentioned that several sectors with poor sentiment should be viewed together: alcohol, agriculture—these are sectors that appear during market weakness, so grouping them can have a linkage effect. Robots also show abnormal movement at this time, but the logic is similar to yesterday’s aerospace—oversold and grouped, but much weaker. If really attacking, just ramp up the strong ones from yesterday. Right?

So I said yesterday that a high open is very damaging; chip rotation is poor; no volume, no volume, no volume—that’s a problem. Review the possible scenarios I mentioned yesterday and prepare for them.
4. Why did Hangdian’s second board bid and the order placement, and why did Huangtai’s zero-axis buy point yesterday? You can backtest these; they are classic short-term strategies. Once understood, you can calmly face future short-term markets.

Check the consecutive boards:
4 boards:
Hengdian, computing power + electricity, Zhejiang, not very good fermentation, some fermentation in the rope angle, it also hit the limit, needs turnover tomorrow. T-shaped board with a low open, watch for risk. Photovoltaic sector, see if it can eat.
Mingdiao, three-board group, accompanying Hengdian.
3 boards:
Minbao, positive for a one-word rebound after suspension, but already three boards, with reduced closing orders today.
Shun Na, supporting Hengdian, too close, no reason to block Hengdian.
2 boards:
Shuangliang, SpaceX + photovoltaics, bonds, over-expected bond play, watch the quality of closing orders; if below expectations, play it later.
Julii, no momentum, aerospace’s divergence is gone, it’s hard for Julii to rebound tomorrow; the same pattern Zhejiang Wen has been hammered.
Hanjian, positive for a one-word, largest order today, watch the order quality tomorrow.
Yinlun, robotics + computing hardware, Zhejiang, still used for Fenglong, with bonds.
Tiantong, aerospace + photovoltaics + semiconductors, another Zhejiang.
Zhongji, aerospace + logistics + data CITIC, Guangdong, marine engineering follows Juli.
Guosheng, benefits from photovoltaics energy, one Shuangliang, one Guosheng, but photovoltaics isn’t very sincere.
Jingtou, Beijing, active? Absorbed Hanjian’s energy.
Zerun, photovoltaics, 20cm.
First board:
Shaanxi Black Cat, coal sector with initiative.
Baota Long, coal sector, first board in the afternoon.
Jingcheng, hydrogen energy’s earliest board.
Hangzhou Jiebai, Youhao Group, small cap, retail.
Intercontinental Oil & Gas, fastest to board.

Other preset operations for tomorrow!
Thanks to the brothers who rewarded me in the last post: @SunshineSlaughter @Dunlai @BoardPeng @GoldenYears1188 @Dming, appreciate the support. Hope your accounts stay red!
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