Chaotic cycle trial-and-error phase, abandon the attack, and wait patiently! (Review on 2026.02.04)

Data Review: [Taogu Ba]
Today’s Shanghai Composite Index +0.85%, ChiNext Index -0.40%, STAR Market 50 Index -1.20%, total market turnover 24,809 billion, 3,254 stocks rose, 2,130 stocks fell, market-wide trading volume decreased by 632 billion compared to yesterday.
Overall Market Sentiment: Weak Volatility
Number of limit-up stocks: 68 (yesterday: 69)
Number of 20-cent limit-up stocks: 9 (yesterday: 7)
Number of consecutive limit-up stocks: 13 (yesterday: 10)
Number of limit-down stocks: 5 (yesterday: 9)
Today’s break rate: 21.8% (yesterday: 20.7%)
Today’s first-limit success rate: 15.2% (yesterday: 19.2%)

Today’s Hot Stocks with Large Market Moves
Tianzhong Precision-21, Consumer Electronics/Smart Manufacturing
Hengdian Film-16, Consumer/Continued Limit-up
Before 9:45 AM opening, whether large-cap stocks from the previous day can recover quickly is an auxiliary signal for sector recovery.

Today’s High-Volume Surprising Stocks in Bidding
Mingyang Smart / Tongding Interconnection

Global Continuous Limit-up Stocks Summary:
4-limit: Hangdian Co. (AI Power, Computing Power), Mingdiao Co. (Renovation, Real Estate)
3-limit: Minbao Optoelectronics (Acquisition of Equity), Shunnao Co. (AI Power, Computing Power)
2-limit: Guosheng Technology (Photovoltaic), Hanjian Heshan (Restructuring), Jingtou Development (Urban Circle), Shuangliang Energy Saving (Space Photovoltaic), Tiantong Co. (Computing Power, Optical Communication), Zerun New Energy (Space Photovoltaic), Julii Sockets (Commercial Aerospace), Yinlun Co. (Robotics, Computing Power), CIMC Group (Commercial Aerospace)

I. Sentiment Cycle and Key Node Analysis:
Limit-up median range remains unchanged, continuous limit-up stocks remain in the mid-low range, break rate remains stable, limit-down stocks are in the mid-low range, total trading amount of limit-up stocks/market total is 0.28, in the low range. Comparing with yesterday’s data, no obvious change. Notably, the total limit-up amount has significantly decreased, indicating weak market sentiment and cautious large capital behavior. Currently, it is a chaotic trial-and-error phase.

Sentiment Temperature: Slightly Weak at 30

Tomorrow’s Short-term Market Sentiment Anchors:
Tianzhong Online, Hangdian Co.
Before 9:45 AM, the positive/negative feedback and extreme sentiment anchors of these stocks serve as signals for market bullish or bearish sentiment temperature.

Recent Strong Sectors, Top Sector of the Day, and Notable Stocks Within the Day:

II. Capital Flow Analysis:
Loss Effect -
Sector, concentrated in AI applications, technology line, representing recent hot topics with significant divergence and rotation.
Position and structure are concentrated around the median trend, represented by Tianzhong Online, Lio Co., etc.

Profit Effect -
Sector, no obvious profit effect, distributed across space photovoltaic, computing power, coal, consumer sectors, indicating weak rotation in various sectors.
Position and structure show no clear profit effect, mainly in mid-to-low positions, represented by Julii Sockets, Hangdian Co., Tiantong Co., etc.

Capital Flow Summary -
Yesterday’s strong sectors, such as Commercial Aerospace and Computing Power, showed capital realization behaviors. Recently, AI applications that have been entangled in trading are beginning to show signs of correction. The overall market funds are testing across sectors, with no formation of a healthy trend or group behavior. Current capital flow is unclear; further observation is recommended.

III. Sector Analysis:

Commercial Aerospace (SpaceX, Space Computing) -
In the first trial-and-error phase.

Today’s aerospace sector bidding phase saw Julii Sockets and Shuangliang Energy Saving hit the limit-up with strong sentiment signals. However, the order book for Shuangliang Energy Saving has been weakening, and as the strongest space photovoltaic branch yesterday, this bidding signal is below expectations. Aerospace development opened high without issue, with small gaps for Xinxin Communication, Western Materials, Chengchang Technology, etc., indicating overall divergence or expectation of divergence.

After opening, core aerospace stocks oscillated and strengthened, Western Materials, Xinxin Communication, Chengchang Technology showed weak oscillations, while the front-runner Junda Co. opened high and sold off, Zhencheng Digital oscillated and strengthened, with Autowell showing strong anti-dip resilience. Even with some stocks showing controlled capital orders and local strong momentum, both SpaceX and space photovoltaic branches show divergence signals. During trading, some funds flowed back into space photovoltaic, mainly for arbitrage of the first-limit-up stocks.

Despite the sector still showing some effect today, the strength is mainly concentrated in space photovoltaic and offshore recovery branches.

The strong stocks in space photovoltaic are not the core front-runners like Autowell, Zhencheng Digital, or Junda Co., but rather some later-position stocks riding the concept with first-limit-ups. Since funds are reluctant to chase the front, indicating low bullish intent and mainly arbitrage behavior.

Offshore recovery branch’s strong stocks include Jujian Co. (accelerated rebound), Shenjian Co. (oversold rebound), Hailanxin, and Triangle Defense, which are all previously involved in marine economy trends. However, the capacity of offshore recovery stocks is small and cannot significantly boost the overall commercial aerospace sector.

The reason why space photovoltaic and offshore recovery are strong is that the previous sector downturn accumulated a large number of trapped positions. A combination of index, large funds, market bullish sentiment, etc., is needed to trigger a second wave of rally. Funds are seeking new battlegrounds in space photovoltaic and offshore recovery because these segments have cleaner chips and are easier to push higher. These two branches can be viewed as new themes.

In summary, although the commercial aerospace sector appears strong, most of the gains are from small-cap stocks with limit-ups, mainly arbitrage by large funds. The capacity stocks generally show weak oscillation. Space photovoltaic and offshore recovery have limited upside due to small capacity. Based on the strength of space photovoltaic, rotation is still expected, but only related to PV equipment companies with high relevance to the theme.

AI Applications -
In the fourth stage of trend cycle.
Stage 1 led by Blue Cursor, followed by Lio Co., Yidian Tianxia, etc.
Stage 2 led by Lio Co., followed by others.
Stage 3 led by Zhejiang Wenlian, followed by others.
Stage 4 led by Tianzhong Online, followed by others.

Today’s AI application bidding phase saw Zhejiang Wenlian opening high, Tianzhong Online opening low, core capacity stocks like Blue Cursor and Lio Co. opening slightly low. No special signals during bidding. After opening, Zhejiang Wenlian declined from high, capacity stocks like Blue Cursor plunged and weakened, Tianzhong Online oscillated and weakened, and Lio Co. sharply dropped with a limit-down action. This extreme negative feedback indicates sector divergence and possible further correction. As a sector with recent repeated trading and rotation, a breakdown like this should not be bottomed out. For example, the previous high in AI power was characterized by continuous amplitude fluctuations and repeated corrections, leading to a clean exit structure.

In summary, if capacity stocks break below the 5-day trend line, it signals potential further correction. Despite some industry catalysts, the short-term outlook remains cautious. Wait for continued divergence signals or exhaustion of short-selling momentum before considering participation. Focus on core stocks like Blue Cursor, Zhejiang Wenlian, Tianzhong Online, and Lio Co. for strength assessment. Also, observe Zhitex New Materials as an auxiliary indicator for sector expectations.

Artificial Intelligence (Computing Power, Chips) -
In the 13th stage of trend cycle.
Stage 1 led by Haili Co., Chunzong Technology, followed by Zhangjiang High-tech.
Stage 2 led by Haili Co., Dongxin Co., followed by Zhangjiang High-tech.
Stage 3 led by Chunzong Technology, Huasheng Tiancheng, Yingweike, followed by Feilong Co., etc.
Stage 4 led by Huasheng Tiancheng, followed by others.
Stage 5 led by Cambrian, Haiguang Information, followed by others.
Stage 6 led by Huasheng Tiancheng, followed by others.
Stage 7 has no core leader, partial rotation.
Stage 8 led by Industrial Fuxian, Shenghong Technology, followed by others.
Stage 9 has no core leader, with core stocks in various branches alternating rises.
Stage 10 led by Demingli, Shannong Chip, Jiangbolong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Shenghong Technology, followed by others.
Stage 11 led by Blue Cursor, followed by 360, Vision China, etc.
Stage 12 involves alternating rotation and trial-and-error.
Stage 13 led by Tongfu Microelectronics, Haiguang Information, followed by others.

Core capacity stocks in chips: SMIC, Cambrian, Haiguang Information, expect a consolidation in the medium term; domestic substitution has not yet fully exploded.
Core capacity stocks in computing power: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communications, Shenghong Technology, with performance realization expected, market should have a rhythm, short-term consolidation expected.
Liquid cooling trend: Feilong Co., Yingweike, Yidong Electronics, early core players expanding outside Google’s chain, uncertain short-term expectations, medium-long term logic.
NV chain M9 material Q-burst trend: FeliHua, Ping An Electric, CMC Tech, Dongcai Tech, uncertain short-term expectations, medium-long term logic.
NV chain M9 PCB drill core: Dingtai Gaoke, Tungsten High-tech, Han’s Laser, uncertain short-term expectations, medium-long term logic.
NV chain M9 copper foil trend: Copper Crown Copper Foil, Longyang Electronics, Fude Technology, uncertain short-term expectations, medium-long term logic.
Storage chips trend: GigaDevice, Jiangbolong, Shannong Chip, Demingli, Baiwei Storage, etc., with external storage rallying post-holiday and performance expectations, potential for further gains, short-term uncertain, medium-long term logic.
Domestic front-end semiconductor trend: North China Huachuang, Jiangfeng Electronics, Fuchuang Precision, Dinglong Co., Chipone Micro, GreenDa, Jingce Electronic, etc., related to wafer manufacturing (lithography, development, coating, etching, inspection), short-term expectations uncertain, medium-long term logic.
Domestic back-end semiconductor trend: Changchuan Technology, Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, Jingzhida, Jinhai Tong, Silan Micro, Helin Micro, Polymeric Materials, uncertain short-term expectations, medium-long term logic.
Optical fiber trend: Longfei Fiber, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Tongding Interconnection, currently in a healthy upward trend, short-term expectations uncertain, part of long-term price increase logic.

Today’s tech sector chips and semiconductors continue to diverge and correct. Whether it’s the recent hot domestic chips, packaging and testing semiconductors, or storage chips, they all show continuous weakness and correction. Yesterday’s relatively strong computing power sector also diverged, with notable stocks like Litong Electronics, Wangsu Technology, Hongjing Technology weakening collectively.

Stocks with relatively strong anti-dip ability today include optical fiber, optical communication (partial), and gas turbines. Currently, gas turbines are showing the best trend structure for movement, starting from the AI power wave and continuing to present oscillation. This can be seen as a crossing signal of sector cycles, but such medium-long term trend logic suggests limited short-term upside.

In summary, recent tech sector segments are in a phase of alternating rotation and partial rally based on medium-long term logic. The focus is on the continuous weakening of large institutional stocks, indicating a cautious stance. The tech sector as an offensive segment is not expected to have much pre-holiday rally.

IV. Index and Market Outlook:

As shown in the chart, today’s index opened flat and oscillated narrowly, then quickly surged in the midday, mainly driven by the weighting of the CSI 300, lifting the index. However, small and mid-cap stocks and hot topics did not resonate, resulting in a lack of profit effect. The index’s rapid rise is deemed ineffective, indicating a non-profitable rally.

The key focus remains on future market expectations. Yesterday’s review mentioned two possible scenarios:

1. If short-term market sentiment shows signs of a positive rebound, it will continue along the second rebound structure of 11.21, with sustained oscillation and upward trend.
2. If the index and sentiment show signs of a sharp rise followed by a fall or weak oscillation, it will follow the first rebound structure of 01.06, with a secondary correction and bottoming before a genuine rebound.

The specific path depends on whether the index, market sentiment, and volume all show positive feedback. Currently, only positive signals for the index are observed, such as the extreme negative feedback from Tianzhong Online or continued shrinking of market volume. The second scenario seems more likely; if no positive signals emerge in the coming days, a second correction is possible.

Tomorrow’s Pre-market Outlook:

Currently, hot topics lack sustained profit effects. Funds are leaning towards defensive sectors, with low aggressiveness or bullish intent. Even weak group signals are absent, indicating a mismatch between index and sentiment nodes. Tomorrow’s outlook is uncertain. Rotation is expected among sectors like consumer, commercial aerospace, computing power, and oversold arbitrage. The market is in a phase of confusion and trial-and-error. Avoid aggressive moves; focus on observation and wait for clear buy points after funds choose directions.

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