Will Bitcoin Crash Further? Markets Show Low Odds of Recovery Before Mid-2026

The question dominating trader sentiment is increasingly clear: will bitcoin crash from current levels? Prediction markets are pricing in significant downside risk, with consensus suggesting Bitcoin may face extended weakness before any meaningful rebound to $100,000. As of early February 2026, market participants across major prediction platforms are largely pessimistic about near-term price action, reflecting eroding bullish conviction following last year’s October decline.

Market Consensus Points to Minimal Recovery Before Late Q1

Leading prediction platforms show traders assign minimal odds to a Bitcoin recovery before the end of January. The data tells a sobering story:

Polymarket: Only ~6% probability BTC crosses $100,000 before Jan. 31 Kalshi: Approximately ~7% probability Bitcoin reaches $100,000 before month-end

This reflects a striking shift from prior bull-run expectations. Bitcoin’s 2026 high so far stands at $97,900, recorded on Jan. 14, while the asset last traded above $100,000 on Nov. 13, before sentiment sharply reversed. Historically, Bitcoin recovered to six figures within roughly 93 days after similar pullbacks. However, prediction market traders appear far less optimistic that history will repeat this cycle.

Downside Targets: Traders Bet on $65K-$80K Range Before Rebound

Perhaps more telling than the $100K miss is where traders expect the pain to come first. Kalshi data suggests only ~65% odds Bitcoin will break above $100,000 before June, indicating markets expect prolonged consolidation rather than rapid recovery. Meanwhile, Polymarket traders increasingly anticipate further downside:

• 65% odds BTC falls to $80,000 before recovering to $100K
• 54% odds of a $70,000 bottom in 2026
• 50% odds Bitcoin tests $65,000
• 42% odds BTC crashes as low as $60,000

This distribution reflects growing caution as tightening financial conditions persist, bond yields remain elevated, and geopolitical risks continue weighing on risk appetite. The skew toward lower outcomes suggests traders are positioning for capital preservation rather than aggressive accumulation.

Can Bitcoin Hold Above Strategy’s Cost Basis?

A secondary question preoccupying prediction market participants concerns whether Bitcoin will trade below Strategy’s average purchase price, currently around $75,979 per BTC. Here, the outlook proves slightly less dire:

75% probability Bitcoin dips below Strategy’s cost basis in 2026

Yet despite this expectation, markets remain confident that Strategy itself will not liquidate positions. Less than 26% odds Strategy sells Bitcoin this year, while 84% probability suggests the firm holds more than 800,000 BTC by year-end. Indeed, last week Strategy expanded its treasury to 709,715 BTC, purchasing 22,305 BTC for approximately $2.13 billion—reinforcing its long-term accumulation conviction even as near-term outlooks deteriorate.

Institutional Conviction vs. Near-Term Caution

The divergence between institutional buying and short-term pessimism reveals a market split. While treasury-focused buyers like Strategy continue accumulating on weakness, general trader positioning has shifted sharply defensive. Current BTC price of $75.93K sits well below the October 2025 crash baseline, highlighting the severity of sentiment deterioration.

With Bitcoin trading near five-figure purchase costs, traders appear focused on determining will bitcoin crash further before any sustained recovery materializes. The prediction market consensus suggests multiple test levels—from $80,000 down through $65,000-$70,000—remain likely before any credible $100,000 retest emerges, potentially not until mid-2026 or later according to market consensus.

For now, prediction markets suggest that clearer macro catalysts, liquidity relief, or renewed ETF inflows remain prerequisites for reassessing the $100,000 level with conviction. Until then, Bitcoin’s next major move may come as further downside rather than upside.