Various Metal Allocation Recommendations: Long-term Upward Potential Ranking — Copper (XCUUSDT) > Aluminum (XALUSDT) > Platinum (XPTUSDT) > Nickel (XNIUSDT) > Palladium (XPDUSDT) > Lead (XPBUSDT). The following analysis is based on supply and demand, macro factors, drivers, and risks.

I. Core Analysis of Industrial Metals

Copper (XCUUSDT) | ★★★★★ Most Stable and Strong

- Supply Side: Insufficient capital expenditure leading to limited new capacity; supply will be rigid by 2026. UBS forecasts a supply-demand gap of 330,000 tons.
- Demand Side: Driven by energy transition (power grids/storage/NEVs) + AI data centers; State Grid’s "14th Five-Year Plan" invests 4 trillion yuan (up 40%), demand lacks price elasticity.
- Macro and Risks: Rate cut cycle supports USD-denominated assets; short-term inventory fluctuations and macro volatility may cause pullbacks but do not alter the long-term upward trend.
- Target Range: London Copper $11,000–$13,000 per ton, with a roughly 25% upward shift in the midpoint.

Aluminum (XALUSDT) | ★★★★☆ Strong and Certain

- Supply Side: Global capacity ceiling + energy cost constraints limit new capacity; forecast gap of 880,000–990,000 tons by 2026.
- Demand Side: Driven by new energy (solar PV/storage) + lightweighting + accelerated "aluminum replacing copper"; AI computing power boosts aluminum demand for power infrastructure.
- Risks: Recycled aluminum supply is highly elastic; short-term high price volatility.
- Target Range: Shanghai Aluminum 23,000–25,000 yuan/ton, with potential gains exceeding 15%.

Nickel (XNIUSDT) | ★★★☆☆ Highly Elastic but Volatile

- Supply Side: Indonesia’s new capacity release leads to rapid supply growth; structural oversupply persists.
- Demand Side: Supported by high-nickel ternary batteries for NEVs, but growth is slowing.
- Risks: High supply elasticity; sharp price fluctuations; long-term dependence on battery technology changes.

Lead (XPBUSDT) | ★★☆☆☆ Weakest but Most Stable

- Supply Side: High proportion of recycled lead, ample supply.
- Demand Side: Mainly used in lead-acid batteries; accelerated renewable energy substitution; growth is sluggish.
- Conclusion: Strong defensive properties; limited long-term upside potential; suitable for bottom-positioning rather than main investment.

II. Core Analysis of Precious Metals

Platinum (XPTUSDT) | ★★★★☆ Significant Upside Potential

- Supply Side: South Africa’s power and labor issues limit mineral growth; from 2026–2030, mine supply CAGR is only 0.1%; low inventory (about 5 months of demand).
- Demand Side: Industrial demand (semiconductors/solar/hydrogen) recovers; hydrogen fuel cell installations increase by 40%; valuation below gold and silver, with room for correction.
- Risks: Possible slight oversupply in 2026; shrinking investment demand; high short-term volatility.

Palladium (XPDUSDT) | ★★☆☆☆ Weak Potential

- Supply Side: Mine supply CAGR from 2026–2030 is -0.7%; recycling supply is highly elastic.
- Demand Side: Automotive catalytic converter demand peaks; hydrogen energy substitution accelerates; demand growth is weak.
- Conclusion: Weaker financial attributes than platinum; supply-demand conflicts are not prominent; long-term upward momentum is insufficient.

III. Summary of Core Drivers and Risks

- Core Drivers: Deepening global rate cut cycles, energy transition and rigid AI computing demand, long-term insufficient capital expenditure on supply.
- Major Risks: Macro volatility, supply elasticity (recycled metals), technological route changes (e.g., battery materials), geopolitical disturbances.

IV. Allocation Recommendations

- Core Holdings: Copper + Aluminum, accounting for 60–70%, with the highest long-term certainty.
- Flexible Allocation: Platinum, accounting for 20–30%, to seize valuation recovery and industrial demand rebound opportunities.
- Cautious Participation: Nickel, small positions with strict stop-loss; Palladium and Lead, only for defensive allocation.

Would you like me to create a portfolio based on your acceptable risk level, such as a "30/50/20" or "50/30/20" ratio list, and mark the take-profit and stop-loss ranges for each category?