On-chain reaffirms "bottom signals"? Bitcoin profit and loss supply convergence may point to around $60,000

On February 4th, according to Coindesk, a multi-cycle validated on-chain indicator has once again attracted market attention. Data shows that when the supply of Bitcoin in profit and the supply in loss show a significant convergence, it often corresponds to a market bottom in a bear market cycle. According to Glassnode data, approximately 11 million BTC are currently in profit, while another 8.9 million BTC are in unrealized loss. Historically, when these two indicators are close to balancing, Bitcoin has repeatedly completed cyclical bottoms. Based on current cost basis calculations, further convergence of profit and loss supply may indicate that Bitcoin’s spot price is approaching the $60,000 range. This signal has appeared in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022, and closely coincides with major market lows. Analysis indicates that as prices fluctuate around the overall market cost line, Bitcoin shifts between “profit supply” and “loss supply,” reflecting overall investor pressure and sentiment clearing. If history repeats itself, this indicator could serve as a key reference for determining whether this bear market is nearing its end.