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, which is now at a critical juncture. On February 4, 2026, ADA’s price recorded $0.29 with a 4.59% decline in the last 24 hours, continuing the weakening momentum that started after a solid January performance. Historically, February has always been a challenging month for altcoins, with an average negative return of 9.5%, and Cardano is no exception to this seasonal pattern.
ADA Momentum Enters a Critical Zone
Smart technical analysis browsers show an attention-grabbing formation. According to data from NS3.AI, a descending wedge pattern combined with bullish RSI divergence signals a breakout opportunity with a 90% probability. However, this optimism is still conditional – an upward move must first break through significant technical resistance, specifically the $0.374 resistance level as the first defense zone, followed by an ambitious target of $0.543.
Technical Signals vs Market Reality
Interestingly, the bullish technical signals from RSI divergence contradict the still-flexible fund flow conditions. Although there is a moderate increase in spot buying and Chaikin Money Flow starting to show positive signs, overall trading volume remains at a low level. This creates a unique situation where bullish potential exists on the technical map, but fundamental strength still requires confirmation from broader investor participation.
Capital Flow Dynamics and Derivative Positions
The role of derivative positions is a key accelerator for the next price movement. In a context of limited liquidity, short squeeze activity has a high potential to catalyze a more aggressive rally. Traders using smart browsers for real-time monitoring can capitalize on this momentum when volume begins to increase and the break of the $0.374 level is confirmed.
Outlook and Breakout Targets
Cardano’s roadmap in February will heavily depend on whether the resistance level can be convincingly broken. If ADA manages to surpass $0.374, the next rally will target $0.543 as an intermediate goal. Conversely, failure to break this level will confirm a bearish trend and open the potential for testing lower support levels. For now, the technical setup remains attractive for patient investors with solid risk management.