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, Mike Selig, announced on Wednesday that the regulatory draft for “Event Contracts” proposed in 2024 has been officially withdrawn, and a related guidance issued during the Biden administration has been repealed.
The draft originally aimed to prohibit prediction contracts based on political event outcomes, treating them the same as contracts related to war, terrorism, and other “against public interest” activities. Selig stated that the 2024 proposal reflects the previous administration’s “overreach in value judgment-based regulation,” and that the CFTC will reintroduce a new set of rules based on the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), which are more consistent and rational, to support responsible innovation in the derivatives market and align with Congress’s legislative intent. This policy adjustment provides a clearer regulatory signal for prediction markets.
Previously, the CFTC lost a lawsuit against Kalshi, which forced the agency to allow the launch of political prediction contracts. With the new administration in office, institutions including Coinbase and Cboe have begun actively developing prediction market-related businesses. The withdrawal of the old regulation is seen as a significant turning point in the direction of prediction market regulation in the United States.