February 5 Member Morning Report: U.S. soybean prices suddenly jump, U.S. January ADP employment only half of expectations

1. 【Sudden Surge in U.S. Soybean Prices】 Today, U.S. soybean prices suddenly surged.

2. 【U.S. January ADP Employment Only Half of Expectations】U.S. January ADP added 22,000 jobs, far below market expectations of 48,000, with the previous figure revised down from 41,000 to 37,000.

3. 【Iran Confirms Negotiations on the 6th】Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi clarified Iran’s official stance on talks with the U.S. in Oman, stating that negotiations will be held around 10 a.m. on February 6 in Muscat, Oman. The U.S. earlier rejected Iran’s proposal to change the original meeting location from Istanbul, Turkey, to Oman. This deadlock has raised concerns across the Middle East, fearing that Trump might resort to military action. At least nine countries in the region have contacted the White House through high-level channels, strongly urging the U.S. not to cancel the meeting.

4. 【Uber Shares Plunge After Earnings Report】Uber’s net profit for Q4 was $296 million, a sharp 96% decline year-over-year. The company expects adjusted earnings per share for Q1 this year to be between 65 cents and 72 cents, below market expectations, but total bookings exceeded market forecasts.

5. 【Google Announces Earnings After Market Close】Google’s quarterly revenue and profit both exceeded analyst expectations. Quarterly revenue broke through $100 billion for the first time. However, the company disclosed that capital expenditures this year will reach between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double the total for 2025, shocking Wall Street.

Commentary: This earnings report is the ultimate portrait of tech giants facing the “Prisoner’s Dilemma” in the AI era, exemplifying a “print money with one hand, burn money with the other” scenario: Google demonstrated its dominance in core business with a perfect revenue report, but then released a “suicidal” capital expenditure plan that directly shattered Wall Street’s psychological defenses. Breaking the $100 billion quarterly revenue milestone is historic, proving that despite the challenges from ChatGPT and TikTok, Google’s search ads and YouTube remain the world’s most formidable money-printing machines. It signals to the market that Google has enough “cash capacity” to support the upcoming money-burning war. Without this $100 billion revenue base, the subsequent spending plan wouldn’t be a “big gamble” but a “suicide.” In reality, this printing press will also have its downtime; see the in-depth analysis: “What American tech giants truly fear now is not the AI bubble burst, but…”