Bitcoin ETF outflows reach 2.9 billion! 68,000 support levels under urgent pressure, professional traders bet on decline

Bitcoin falls below 73,000, hitting a new low in 2026, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing outflows of $2.9 billion over 12 trading days. The decline is synchronized with Nasdaq, and weak AMD prospects are suppressing risk appetite. Delta skew at 13% indicates professional traders do not believe the bottom has been reached. The 200-week EMA at $68,400 remains a key support level. The weekly chart shows a three black crows pattern, and RSI is oversold, requiring observation of divergence. Leverage liquidations amount to $3.25 billion.

12 Days of Blood Loss, $2.9 Billion Outflow, Institutional Confidence Crumbles

(Source: Coinglass)

Over the past 12 trading days, more than $2.9 billion has been withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs, making this one of the longest and largest withdrawal waves since the ETF’s launch. Since January 16, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have experienced an average daily net outflow of $243 million, closely matching the resistance level of $98,000 on January 14. In the three weeks following, Bitcoin’s price declined by 26%, triggering $3.25 billion in leveraged long Bitcoin futures liquidations.

This persistent capital outflow indicates that institutional investors are systematically exiting Bitcoin ETFs. Unlike retail traders’ emotional buying and selling, institutions typically allocate via ETFs based on long-term portfolio strategies and risk management models. When institutions have been withdrawing for 12 consecutive days, it signals a fundamental shift in their risk-reward assessment of Bitcoin. Possible reasons include better risk-adjusted returns available in other risk assets like technology stocks, disappointment with the crypto policies of the Trump administration, or simple portfolio rebalancing needs.

Unless buyers add margin, any leverage exceeding 4x has been liquidated. The $3.25 billion in liquidations demonstrates that the market has undergone a thorough deleveraging process over the past three weeks. While painful, this also reduces market fragility, leaving mostly low or no leverage holders with strong conviction. Historically, large-scale liquidations often mark the beginning of a market bottom, but it takes time for confidence to recover.

Some market participants attribute recent sharp declines to the ongoing impact of the October 10, 2025, $19 billion liquidation event. Reports suggest this was caused by a database query failure at Binance, leading to transfer delays and data errors. Binance acknowledged technical issues during the sell-off and paid over $283 million in compensation to affected users.

Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly, said Binance’s massive liquidation “cannot be completed, but the liquidation engine is still running. This has wiped out market makers, leaving them unable to recover losses.” Qureshi added that the October 2025 crash did not permanently “destroy the market,” but noted that market makers “need time to recover.” Analysis indicates that the liquidation mechanisms at crypto exchanges “are not designed to self-stabilize like traditional financial mechanisms (e.g., circuit breakers),” but are solely focused on minimizing bankruptcy risk.

Delta Skew at 13% Reveals Professional Traders’ Panic

(Source: Laevitas)

To determine whether professional traders have turned bearish after the crash, one should analyze the Bitcoin options market. During periods of market stress, demand for put options (sell options) surges, causing delta skew indicators to exceed the neutral threshold of 6%. Excessive demand for downside protection typically indicates a lack of confidence among bullish traders.

On Wednesday, Bitcoin options delta skew reached 13%, clearly indicating that professional traders do not believe Bitcoin has bottomed at $72,100. This is an extreme reading, far above the 6% neutral level, showing that demand for put options is more than twice that for call options. Traders are willing to pay a premium to buy downside protection, implying they expect Bitcoin to fall further to $65,000 or even $60,000.

This skepticism partly stems from concerns that, as Google and AMD release self-developed AI chips, the tech industry may face increasing competition. The high correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks means that if Nasdaq continues to decline, Bitcoin will find it difficult to decouple. AMD’s earnings report on Tuesday showed its AI chip business underperformed, fueling fears of an AI bubble. Nasdaq dropped over 3% that day, with Bitcoin falling in tandem.

Three Major Signals from the Bitcoin Options Market

Delta skew 13%: Surge in put options demand, professional traders do not believe the bottom has been reached

Implied volatility rising: Market expects increased volatility in the coming weeks

Put/call volume imbalance: Put options trading volume far exceeds call options, indicating a defensive stance

Another unsettling factor for Bitcoin holders is the spread of two unrelated and unfounded rumors. First, there were rumors that a client of Galaxy Digital planned to sell $9 billion worth of Bitcoin, citing risks from quantum computing. However, Galaxy’s research head, Alex Thorn, denied these rumors on X (formerly Twitter) on Tuesday. The second rumor concerns Binance’s solvency; the exchange experienced a technical failure on Tuesday, temporarily halting withdrawals, which raised concerns about its ability to meet obligations. Current on-chain data shows Binance’s Bitcoin deposits remain relatively stable.

$68,400 Support and Potential Double Bottom Rebound

The 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), around $68,400, remains a critical support level. Historically, this moving average has served as a “last line of defense,” providing support during the March 2020 pandemic crash and after the Luna collapse in 2022. If this support holds again, it will confirm its role as a long-term trend boundary. A breakdown could open the door to declines toward $60,000 or even $50,000, entering a deep bear market.

On the resistance side, regaining the $83,598 level (the previous support turned resistance) is necessary to negate the current bearish outlook. This level is a key breakout point for the 2024 bull market, now turned into a significant resistance. Breaking above it would require a combination of positive Bitcoin ETF capital inflows, a rebound in tech stocks, and macroeconomic improvements.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 30, indicating oversold conditions. This could signal an upcoming rebound, but experienced traders prefer to see RSI divergence before confirming a bottom. If RSI drops below 25 and then rebounds, combined with increased volume and slowing ETF outflows, it would provide a more reliable buy signal. Currently, relying solely on oversold conditions to identify a bottom involves higher risk.

Given the macroeconomic uncertainties, many traders are exiting the crypto market. This shift makes it difficult to predict whether Bitcoin ETF outflows will continue to exert downward pressure on prices. The recent 12-day ETF outflows, derivatives data, and synchronized trading with tech stocks suggest that traders will continue reducing risk exposure.