Chaos Tiancheng Futures: Some countries are including coking coal in their key strategic mineral categories, which may increase stockpiling demand in the short term.

Coal prices are still policy-driven, with the government favoring stability. We expect the reasonable range for thermal coal prices to be between 700-800 yuan/ton, and coking coal to be between 1050-1400 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines will have holidays and reduce production. The expected reduction is similar to last year. Downstream winter storage for coking coal is also nearing completion. The fundamental trading has basically ended, and the dual coke futures follow market sentiment fluctuations. The most important news currently is that some countries are including coking coal as a key strategic mineral, which may increase stockpiling demand in the short term and raise the center of coking coal prices. However, current coking coal prices are at a median level, macro sentiment is highly volatile, and holding risks are high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Domestic infrastructure construction is basically complete, with weak demand from real estate and infrastructure. In the future, as the economy shifts toward high-quality development, demand for basic steel will continue to weaken. Overall steel supply and demand are oversupplied, and the market is caught in a spiral of internal competition and deflation. Current anti-inflation policies may change the long-term outlook for dual coke. (Hundun Tiancheng Futures)