Bank of China Futures: Synthetic rubber short-term supported by reduced supply due to decreased operations

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-05T01:54:02+00:00

Natural rubber supply and demand decline seasonally, and futures prices are affected by market capital fluctuations. Domestic production areas have halted tapping, Thailand has reduced output, and with the Chinese New Year approaching, downstream demand has slowed, leading to increased inventories. The processing profit of cis-butadiene rubber has turned negative, and operating rates have been reduced, but it is expected that improved raw material profitability will boost domestic production, and industry profit changes should be monitored.

K-LinePoet

2026-02-05 01:54:02

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From a fundamental perspective, the seasonal marginal decline in natural rubber supply and demand causes futures prices to follow fluctuations in the commodity futures market. On the supply side, domestic production areas have halted tapping, while northern Thailand is gradually reducing production, and southern Thailand is in the peak tapping season for 2025~2026, leading to neutral to slightly strong raw material prices. On the demand side, with the Spring Festival approaching, domestic downstream tire manufacturers will gradually go on holiday. As of February 1, after a brief one-week destocking period, domestic trade channels continued to accumulate inventory (according to Longzhong Information, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 591,700 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons or 1.23% from the previous period. Bonded zone inventory is 97,600 tons, up 3.34%; general trade inventory is 494,100 tons, up 0.82%).
After processing profits in the cis-butadiene rubber industry turned negative, operating rates have decreased over the past two weeks; meanwhile, raw material side profits are expected to improve due to process profitability, which may boost domestic production, potentially leading to industry profit adjustments. In the short term, BR is supported by reduced supply due to lower operating rates; medium-term focus on changes in raw material supply. (Bank of China Futures)

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