【Trend Report】Longest Spring Festival Holiday in History Boosts Consumer Spending Large Consumer Sector Expected to See Valuation Recovery

The three major A-share indices collectively pulled back today. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.44%, and the ChiNext Index declined 1.55%. The combined trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was less than 2.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 300 billion yuan compared to yesterday. Industry sectors saw more declines than gains, with beauty and personal care, tourism and hotels, banking, and retail sectors leading in gains. Gold and precious metals, photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, minor metals, power grid equipment, and non-ferrous metals saw the largest declines. In individual stocks, over 1,600 stocks rose, with more than 50 hitting the daily limit**.**

As the Spring Festival approaches, A-share consumer sectors are once again active. The market expects the 9-day extended Spring Festival holiday to boost retail sales of gold, travel, hospitality, and dining services**.** Various local policies to promote consumption have also been intensively introduced. Recently, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued the “2026 ‘LeGou New Spring’ Spring Festival Special Activities Plan,” focusing on sectors such as first-launch economy, digital consumption, green consumption, smart consumption, health consumption, and inbound consumption. By integrating commerce, culture, tourism, sports, and exhibitions, and through online and offline coordination, they aim to organize colorful, popular Spring Festival consumption activities, expand the supply of quality goods and services, enrich diverse consumption scenarios, stimulate the vitality of physical commerce, and better meet people’s needs for a better life.

Additionally, according to media reports today, to solidly promote the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port and effectively enhance residents’ sense of gain, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued the “Notice on the ‘Zero Tariff’ Policy for Imported Goods for Domestic Residents’ Consumption in Hainan Free Trade Port,” which has been implemented since the announcement date. The policy stipulates that for residents within the designated operating venues of the Hainan Free Trade Port, imported goods purchased within the duty-free quota and list will be exempt from import tariffs, value-added tax, and consumption tax at both import and domestic stages.

Huachuang Securities stated that the peak season for Spring Festival consumption has begun, with numerous policies to promote consumption being introduced across various regions, injecting strong momentum into the year’s consumer market. Donghai Securities pointed out that under the expansion of domestic demand policies, consumption potential continues to be released, channel reforms are leading new demands, and industry structural opportunities should be closely watched.

Huachuang Securities: The Spring Festival Consumption Peak Season Has Begun

The Spring Festival consumption peak season has started, with many regions launching policies to promote consumption, providing strong support for a “good start” in the annual consumer market. By reviewing Spring Festival promotion activities nationwide, it is observed that this round of activities features clear characteristics of “government-led, multi-party coordination, and full coverage.” Its core lies in the dual drive of “policy + activities,” deeply integrating commerce, culture, tourism, sports, and exhibitions, aiming to stimulate consumption potential, optimize supply, and create a festive atmosphere. With strong policy support and a rich array of activities, the Spring Festival consumer market in 2026 is expected to see a robust recovery, with consumption data possibly exceeding market expectations, laying a solid foundation for the sustained warming of the entire year’s market.

Donghai Securities: Focus on Industry Structural Opportunities

Under the expansion of domestic demand policies, consumption potential continues to be unleashed, channel reforms are leading new demands, and industry structural opportunities should be closely monitored. First, the reversal of difficulties: (1) Catering supply chain: CPI stabilizes and rises, demand for dining is expected to marginally recover, and leading companies’ competition is easing. (2) Dairy industry: Relevant departments have implemented temporary anti-subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the EU, and have adopted measures such as “country-specific quotas and additional tariffs” on imported beef, with the meat and dairy cycle expected to resonate in 2026. Second, new consumption directions: under trends of self-indulgence, health, and value-for-money, focus on sectors like snacks, tea drinks, and pets**.**

Guoyuan Securities: Domestic Policy Bonuses Continue to Be Released, Potentially Promoting Further Maturity and Improvement of the IP Derivatives Industry Ecosystem

In the context of emotional and self-indulgence consumption, the prosperity of IP supply and commercialization operations drive the expansion of the derivatives market scale. Domestic policy bonuses are expected to continue releasing, potentially promoting further maturity and improvement of the IP derivatives industry ecosystem. The overseas market is experiencing explosive growth, contributing significant incremental value. Investment opportunities in the IP derivatives sector are optimistic for 2026. For gold and jewelry, focus on brand premium capabilities and overseas expansion progress. From January to December, the retail sales of gold and silver jewelry above a certain quota increased by 12.78%, benefiting from the rise of “self-indulgence” consumption. The “wearing oneself” scenario is currently the core driver of gold jewelry sales. High craftsmanship, fixed-price per-piece products are showing impressive growth, and the importance of brand and product strength is increasingly evident. Leading brands are actively expanding overseas, starting with Southeast Asia to explore international markets. The new tax reform policy implemented in November benefits leading retail brands by increasing their market share.

Guoxin Securities: The Food and Beverage Sector Remains Optimistic Overall in 2026

The food and beverage sector remains optimistic overall for 2026, with four main investment themes: profit improvement driven by cost bonuses in dairy, yeast, and other industries; market share expansion of efficiency-enhancing companies; companies with new product development and channel innovation capabilities; and turnaround opportunities in distressed sectors like white liquor, which have valuation repair potential after adjustments.

CITIC Securities: Actual Sales of White Liquor During the 2026 Spring Festival Are Expected to Remain Stable

The white liquor industry is about to enter the Spring Festival peak season marketing activities. After distributor conferences, channels continue to learn and absorb multi-dimensional reform experiences from leading companies regarding channels and products. We believe that, under new reforms and directions, the industry may refocus on market cultivation and consumer education, promoting bottle-opening sales and reducing burdens on distributors. Considering that sales are gradually stabilizing, the 2026 Spring Festival holiday includes an extra day, and various consumption scenarios for white liquor during the festival, we judge that actual sales during the 2026 Spring Festival are likely to remain stable, without excessive pessimism. Furthermore, with the clear trend of gradual recovery, we are optimistic about bottom-positioning opportunities in the white liquor industry.

CICC: Focus on Differentiated High-Growth Companies

In the food and beverage sector, beverages in 2026 need to consider high base effects and market structure disturbances, but we remain optimistic about high-quality leading brands achieving relatively stable performance growth and continuing to replace single and tail-end chain brands in the medium to long term. The resilience of fast-food categories and the ongoing differentiation of dine-in brands are noteworthy. Focus on companies with differentiated high-growth potential. The supply-demand balance in hotels will take time to re-establish; we expect that, amid two years of declining RevPAR, supply growth will slow but still show positive growth, with a potential turning point for RevPAR to turn positive awaiting the recovery of business demand. We are optimistic about high-quality leading brands expanding market share even during industry downturns. The human resources sector is highly cyclical, with long-term increasing penetration of flexible employment. Duty-free sales are bottoming out; pay attention to the impact of Hainan’s border closure and the expansion of domestic channels. Tourism faces price pressures and increased costs, leading to slightly weaker performance growth; monitor progress in scenic area projects and transportation improvements as potential catalysts.

(This article does not constitute any investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk. The market has risks; please invest cautiously.)

(Source: Oriental Fortune Research Center)