1322 yuan → 1565 yuan! A week ago, why didn't anyone believe that "Moutai would rise"?

On February 5th, the three major indices narrowed their afternoon declines. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.44%, and the ChiNext Index declined 1.55%.

In terms of sectors, the consumer sector surged significantly, the large financial sector strengthened in the afternoon, and the computing power leasing concept rebounded. On the downside, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, power grid equipment, and oil and gas led the declines.

Over 3,700 stocks in the market declined. The combined trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.18 trillion yuan, shrinking by 304.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day.

The A-share market remains volatile, with photovoltaic stocks leading the gains yesterday and leading the declines today.

And the story of “Stock King” Moutai has taken a new chapter.

Last Wednesday (January 28), the liquor sector hit a new low for the period and then rebounded slightly, but “no one paid attention”—that day, precious metals were still soaring.

During that day, Guizhou Moutai touched a low of 1322.01 yuan per share. Although still the “stock king,” its price was only a few tens of yuan higher than Cambrian, making it somewhat shaky.

Last Thursday (January 29), the liquor sector released a huge volume, experiencing a “dry land pulling up scallions,” finally catching the market’s attention, but the sustainability remains doubtful—after all, precious metals continued to rise.

Looking back, it was from that day that the market’s tone suddenly changed, leading to significant volatility this week.

During this period, although the liquor sector rarely ranked in the top 10 for gains, Guizhou Moutai has gradually returned to the market’s “C position.”

First, from last Thursday to this Thursday, its stock price rose to a high of 1565 yuan per share, opening a gap of several hundred yuan compared to former challenger Cambrian.

Second, under the continuous upward push of Moutai, although the overall market rotated quickly, the large consumer sector still attracted capital attention, and many sub-themes began to become active.

For example, film and television theaters, tourism hotels, beauty and skincare, home appliances, and other sectors showed only sporadic performance in the past few trading days, but today they appeared concentrated on the gainers list.

Therefore, it can be said that a week ago, almost no one believed that liquor would rebound and that Moutai would surge in the short term. On the day of its first big rise, we also couldn’t predict the subsequent trend. Our view at the time was:

“Due to long-term declines, the liquor sector appears ‘cheap.’ If recent market styles favor stability, low valuation is undoubtedly a plus; the sector’s large volume indicates it has attracted a lot of short-term funds, and future battles are likely to be lively.”

And today, a consensus has basically formed. From a short-term perspective, “believe early, believe often” adds a successful case.

CICC stated that the bottoming signal for Feitian Moutai prices is becoming clearer, and the expectation that leading stocks will steadily cross cycles is likely to strengthen. The company’s volume increase before the Spring Festival is a response to genuine demand and lays the foundation for annual volume and price rhythm regulation, helping to maintain price stability after the peak season. As sales volume increases and price resilience is observed, the bottom of Moutai’s price is gradually becoming clear, and market expectations for price stabilization are expected to recover.

From another perspective, the influence of leading stocks on market sentiment is actually very worth paying attention to.

Essentially, they reflect the attitude of main funds and also influence the patience and confidence of follow-up funds.

Besides Guizhou Moutai’s role in the large consumer sector, we can also find some “counterexamples.”

For instance, on Tuesday this week, Tencent Holdings unexpectedly weakened due to a “tax small essay.” Although the stock price closed with a long lower shadow after the rumor was denied, over the following two days, its stock price continued to decline with increased volume.

As a result, the Hang Seng Tech Index, Hong Kong tech stocks, and some related sectors in A-shares have recently performed poorly. Of course, these sectors are also affected by external markets. CICC stated on February 5th that the US software sector is currently under intense selling pressure, and this painful state may continue for some time.

Similarly, in A-shares, stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, as well as heavyweight AI hardware stocks such as Industrial Fuxin and Shenghong Technology, even if they rebound briefly, their trends are not smooth—this applies to related sectors as well.

Some opinions suggest that high-positioned technology stocks are under noticeable pressure recently, indicating that the overall market risk appetite is decreasing. The “fear of heights” sentiment is gradually emerging. Against this backdrop, sectors like liquor, real estate, and engineering machinery at low levels have also shown signs of position replenishment. Whether a new phase of recovery can be initiated remains to be seen and warrants ongoing attention.

CICC’s research report states that looking ahead to February, net redemptions of stock ETFs peaked at the end of January and have gradually decreased since. Additionally, the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, rising expectations for the Two Sessions policies, and continued foreign capital inflows provide a mild upward foundation for the stock market.

In terms of industry allocation, a balanced strategy is recommended: First, focus on long-term technology themes, paying attention to electrical equipment, software services, and related sectors; second, look for opportunities driven by rising raw material prices, with a focus on the chemical industry; third, allocate to building materials benefiting from urban renewal policies and steady growth logic; fourth, consider high-dividend assets with defensive attributes, such as the coal industry.

Dongcai Illustration · Some Practical Tips

(Source: Daily Economic News)