2.5 Index continues to plummet, sentiment remains chaotic, keep holding your hands steady

Film/Short dramas are the only main line with clear leaders and tiers, while AI computing power/semiconductors have been heavily hit; market sentiment is chaotic and retreating. It is advisable to strictly control positions or stay fully in cash, focusing only on leading stocks and avoiding follow-the-market trades.

1. Market Sentiment and Cycles

• Index: The main index bottomed out at 4057 points and experienced a weak rebound, with overall sideways downward movement and insufficient trading volume.

• Sentiment: Retreating + chaotic, high-level stocks show increasing divergence, more limit-downs, and high risk of follow-on declines.

• Leader and Empty Leader Positioning: No clear overall market leader; mainly competing among sector leaders. If no suitable targets, stay in cash.

2. Core Sectors and Leaders

3. Film/Short dramas (Main line)

• Overall Leader: Hengdian Film & TV (603103) with 5 limit-ups in 6 days, expecting the Spring Festival season, strong order book, leading the sector.

• Front-runners: Tianyu Digital Science (002354), Zhejiang Wenlian, etc., short dramas + AI applications, resisting declines intraday.

• Tiered: Complete pattern from first limit-up to second and high consecutive limit-ups, with obvious capital support.

2. Banks (Defense)

• Leaders: Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, with high dividends for support, no consecutive limit-ups, suitable for institutional allocation, not short-term leaders.

3. Large Consumption (Pre-holiday)

• Retail/food sectors active, no clear sector leader with consecutive limit-ups, capital dispersed, mostly arbitrage.

4. Heavily Declined Sectors (Avoid)

• AI computing power, semiconductors, photovoltaics, etc., with many stocks limit-down, no signs of short-term recovery.

3. Leader and Empty Leader Operation Review

4. Today’s Operations (Leader)

• Buy: Hengdian Film & TV, after confirming leader status, accelerates, opening 4%-5% higher, steady intraday, buy on pullback within 15-30 minutes of opening.

• Sell: Tianyu Digital Science / Zhejiang Wenlian, exit when pulse peaks without support, execute “Sell on Red.”

2. Cash Signal (Empty)

• Overall leader breaks limit or shows high volume stagnation; more sector limit-downs; sentiment retreating, no new leaders emerging.

• Today meets the “No overall leader, then go short” condition, only lightly hold Hengdian Film & TV, otherwise stay fully in cash.

4. Tomorrow’s Strategy

• Leader: Watch whether Hengdian Film & TV can shift from weak to strong; if it opens more than 3% higher with volume and re-approach, continue holding; otherwise, take profit.

• Short: If Hengdian Film & TV breaks limit and the sector declines sharply, immediately go fully in cash and wait for a new cycle.

• Risk Control: Single stock ≤30%, set stop-loss at 5-day moving average/opening price, avoid chasing high without volume.

5. Auxiliary Review Points

• Limit-up Strength: Select stocks with at least 3 consecutive limit-ups and a total order volume ≥5% of circulating market value.

• Sentiment Indicator: Trigger cash signal when limit-down count >10 or net outflow from northbound funds.

• Sector Coordination: When multiple stocks in the same sector hit limit-up, forming tiers, prioritize entering leading stocks.

[Taoguiba]