Guess the temperature and weather every day to earn millions of dollars! Two "Weather Children" have appeared on Polymarket.

They make a fortune quietly by predicting weather temperatures. One individual has earned $1.11 million in a single bet, while another maintains steady profits of tens of thousands of dollars. Through data-driven strategies and precise odds leveraging, they achieve astonishing returns in the weather prediction market.
(Background recap: Polymarket team exposes Kelshi “API data flooding,” pushing the prediction market into a billion-dollar-level competition)
(Additional context: The two giants of prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, are “diverging from their core business”: Are they opening grocery stores offline just because they’re too anxious?)

They make a fortune quietly by predicting weather temperatures. One individual has earned $1.11 million in a single bet, while another maintains steady profits of tens of thousands of dollars.

If someone told you that there are some smart traders making money by predicting weather and temperatures, would you believe it?

The trader named neobrother, shown in the picture above, is wildly betting on weather outcomes in various cities on Polymarket, currently with a cumulative profit of over $20,000. He is not a reckless gambler but a highly data-driven, niche expert skilled in odds leverage. neobrother’s trading record is almost entirely focused on Weather Markets, especially daily high temperatures in major cities worldwide (Buenos Aires, Miami, Ankara, Chicago, New York).

He doesn’t bet on “big trends,” only on “precision,” like a grid arbitrageur in meteorology.

Taking Buenos Aires temperature predictions as an example, he doesn’t just bet on a single temperature but employs a “Laddering” strategy, simultaneously buying Yes positions at 29°C, 30°C, 31°C, 32°C, 33°C, and even 34°C+. This approach is similar to “straddle” or “grid trading” in options. By placing dense low-cost orders (0.2¢ – 15¢) within high-probability temperature ranges, as long as the final temperature falls within this zone, one or two positions can generate extremely high returns (e.g., 811.78% profit from 31°C), covering losses from other ladder steps and achieving explosive gains.

Additionally, he is adept at capturing some extremely low-probability profit opportunities. Most of his market entries are priced very low. For example, in the Buenos Aires 32°C position, his average buy-in is only 0.7¢. This buy-in price implies a potential odds of nearly 142 times. A screenshot shows that this position has already risen to 5¢ (a 733% increase).

He can leverage minimal costs to profit from price swings caused by deviations in weather forecasts. This style requires a deep understanding of meteorological models (like ECMWF or GFS) and the ability to act decisively when market prices lag behind.

These 2,373 predictions demonstrate extremely frequent and highly automated/systematic trading. It’s likely that he is a quantitative or semi-quantitative trader, monitoring weather forecast changes in real-time via scripts and placing orders automatically. He doesn’t risk large sums on a single position but continually seeks hundreds of times returns through tiny investments, quickly withdrawing profits or compounding for the next round.

He may have access to a more accurate and real-time weather forecast source than most retail traders on Polymarket (possibly connected to meteorological APIs). Politics and sports are full of noise, but weather is purely physics and mathematics—if the models are accurate enough, this becomes his endless cash machine.

If this trader is a “weather geek” meticulously calculating the weather in a lab, then Hans323 is the “Black Swan Hunter” and “Top Odds Master” on Polymarket. In London weather predictions, he dares to bet $92,000 in a single shot with only an 8% chance of winning, earning a crazy profit of $1.11 million.

Hans323’s operations have already moved beyond simple predictions; he is exploiting extremely asymmetric risk-reward ratios to conduct large-scale capital harvesting.

Looking at his winning records, his buy-in prices are usually between 2¢ and 8¢. In prediction markets, this indicates the market believes the event has only a 2%–8% chance of occurring. An average player might spend $10 on a 2¢ bet, but Hans323 dares to invest $92,632 at 8¢ (for London temperature predictions).

This strategy is similar to hedge fund manager Nassim Taleb’s “barbell investing.” He doesn’t care if 90% of his predictions fail because hitting just once with 1,100% or even 5,300% returns is enough to cover thousands of trial-and-error attempts.

Unlike neobrother’s “ladder full coverage,” Hans323 prefers to invest heavily at specific narrow points with statistical biases, requiring extreme confidence and a solid underlying model.

Furthermore, reviewing all his past trading records suggests he might be a versatile player backed by a strong data collection team or specialized intelligence sources. For example, in politics: betting on fewer than 10 executive orders issued by Trump in June (at 7¢ entry), in sports: confidently buying when Scottie Scheffler’s odds of winning the PGA are extremely low (2¢), and in culture: successfully predicting TIME’s Person of the Year (6¢). All these bets have yielded good results.

Making money is one thing, but when regular users track the trading records of Polymarket’s top traders, they should not only look at their win rates but also monitor their capital bias and pay attention to risk management. Because the same large loss can be endured very differently by different people.