Corn Shoots Show Early-Week Softness Amid Price Retreat

The corn market experienced a notable pullback early this week, with futures contracts retreating from Friday’s gains as prices gave ground across the board. This weakness represents a temporary correction in what has been a relatively supportive market environment.

Price Action and Cash Market Decline

Corn futures declined between 1 and 2¼ cents during the session, representing the first significant retreat after recent strength. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price fell 2¼ cents to $3.91¼, signaling weakness at the physical market level. Mar 26 Corn futures closed at $4.28¼, down 2¼ cents, while Nearby Cash settled at $3.91¼, similarly down 2¼ cents. The May 26 contract lost 2 cents to $4.36, Jul 26 fell 1¾ cents to $4.42, demonstrating the pullback was distributed across multiple contract months.

Export Sales Momentum Outpaces Last Year Despite Price Weakness

Despite the price setback, export fundamentals remain remarkably strong, providing a contrasting backdrop to corn shoots’ recent retreat. USDA’s FGIS recorded corn export shipments of 1.51 MMT (59.45 mbu) during the week ending January 22, which represented a 1.63% increase from the previous week and a 20.74% increase compared to the same week last year. Mexico emerged as the leading destination with 402,936 MT of shipments, followed by Japan at 265,122 MT and Spain at 210,763 MT.

On a marketing year basis, the 2025/26 export pace continues to impress. Since September 1, cumulative marketing year exports have reached 31.437 MMT (1.24 bbu), now running 53.35% ahead of the prior year’s pace. Export sales commitments, according to Friday’s update, stand at 56.045 MMT, which is 34% ahead of last year and represents 69% of the USDA’s record export estimate—outpacing the traditional 65% average pace for this period.

Brazil’s Second Corn Crop Facing Planting Delays

Agricultural developments in Brazil add another dimension to the global corn shoots outlook. AgRural estimates placed first-crop harvesting in the country’s center-south regions at just 5% complete as of the latest report, ahead of the 2.2% pace recorded last year. However, the second corn crop showed slower progress, with planting at 4.7% as of last Thursday, lagging the 8.6% pace achieved during the comparable period in 2024/25.

Despite the slower planting pace for the second crop, AgRural raised its overall Brazilian corn production estimate by 0.6 MMT to 136.6 MMT, maintaining confidence in the country’s significant supply contribution to global markets.

Futures Contracts Display Broad-Based Softness

The decline in corn shoots was reflected uniformly across the futures complex. The broader selloff indicates some profit-taking following recent gains, though the underlying export demand remains supportive. With export commitments running well ahead of historical norms and international demand showing strength, the market may find support despite near-term technical weakness.

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