Welfare tickets have come to an end.

Since the welfare tickets started being issued nonstop from early December last winter, including two silver ones that doubled rapidly, as well as $Intercontinental Oil & Gas(sh600759)$, $Longfei Optical Fiber(sh601869)$ last week, and $Jingtou Development(sh600683)$ this week.

Most of this week has been spent in continuous fluctuations, with limit-up followed by limit-down. Currently, short-term risks are still accumulating. As the saying goes, “Use profits to trade stocks, never rely on principal.” Those who should make money have already done so. If you don’t believe it, saying it won’t help. [Taogu Ba]

So far, the theoretical value of these targets has not ended, but the uncertainty here comes from external factors. The main reason is that the current market rally is driven by the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. The market’s sustained warming since September 24th has lasted nearly a year and a half. This doesn’t mean the market cycle is over, but short-term risks cannot be ignored. Some stocks have already doubled, some are still profitable, but the current pattern is: today’s limit-up, tomorrow’s limit-down. Today’s decline, tomorrow’s unknown. How do you feel about that? Although I’ve seen stock crashes before, many students might still find it hard to grasp. So, I’ll pause here or say, use profits to trade stocks, not principal. This is an ironclad rule, almost like a family tradition.

This morning’s news announced that the US government ordered all American citizens to evacuate Iran immediately. This is a signal of potential war. Today at noon, we also discussed trading strategies in the event of war. But regardless of the situation, war is generally not friendly to the stock market. Besides sectors like military, oil, and gold that might benefit, they might not. Historically, the US’s brief 1 hour and 40 minutes of conflict with Venezuela, or the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and later the Russia-Ukraine conflict, all had noticeable impacts on the stock market. Of course, there are some positive signals worth watching, but it feels risky—like walking on a knife’s edge. If it’s unnecessary, there’s no need to watch further. Only expert guidance might still offer some opportunities. For ordinary retail investors, the chances of operating are basically nonexistent.

Today, I made many reductions in positions during the late trading session because I really don’t know if war will break out over the weekend. I can’t predict a market plunge, but I feel there might be other major negative news or that the main forces are preventing Iran’s war from escalating. Whether it ends in a few hours or the fire spreads to countless innocent lives, it’s all uncertain. Looking at the US stock market now, it feels somewhat weak. After observing for a while, the biggest concern is the possibility of continued decline. What they are worried about is unknown, but US economic data has been surprisingly strong. Could it be worry about war?

Today’s midday review has said everything that needs to be said. The rapid market plunge at the close was too fast—my keyboard almost smoked from typing. Maybe I didn’t say enough, but perhaps it’s just unnecessary worry. The market environment is indeed brutal, not something ordinary investors should try to handle. On Monday, observe the market changes. If there’s war over the weekend, there’s a good chance some will survive; if not, the market might recover. But it’s all uncertain. Stay closely tuned to the news over the weekend.

That’s all for now. Please remember to like, comment, and tip Cuibo. Thanks to @Tingmao, @SkyFly, @一路向阳一路长虹, @Duqiao, @FuniuWang, @Kkkkkkkk8, @HaveYouDrunkCoffeeToday, @Taogu Apprentice 9977 for tipping and urging the broadcast. The new round of tipping tickets will be recalculated, and this round of urging should be more active.

Thank you.

Keep going!