India Inflation Returns to RBI Tolerance Band

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The inflation rate in India rose to 2.75% in January of 2026, firmly above market expectations of 2.4%. The result marked the first inflation rate within the RBI’s tolerance band of 2%-4% since August of the previous year. The rate was the first measurement in India’s new CPI, which updated the weights of different goods within the index according to the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey from two fiscal years ago. Food inflation, which now accounts for a much smaller portion of the Indian consumer basket, surged to 2.13% from the -2.71% in the previous month, which used the old aggregators for the index. Meanwhile, inflation was elevated for personal care and social protection (19.02%), health (2.19%), and clothing and footwear (2.98%). In turn, transportations inflation was muted at 0.09%. From the previous month, the new consumer price index was at 0.35%.

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