Andrew Kang: Abandon short-termism, embrace exponential growth

Author: Andrew Kang, Founder of Mechanism Capital

Translation: Ken, Chaincatcher

For those who have experienced at least one full market cycle, an instinctive awareness develops—caution toward price surges far exceeding historical growth rates. Witnessing the internet bubble, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the rise and fall of cryptocurrencies triggers pattern recognition alarms in your mind. You hesitate to enter when prices are high, yet also feel the urge to sell your assets at peak levels out of concern.

But it’s crucial to recognize that we are in one of the most profound and unique asymmetric moments in history. The only move now is to extend your time horizon and completely abandon short-termism.

Over-worrying about bubbles is foolish. Trying to time the market is also foolish. Short-term volatility and corrections will always occur, but given how close we are to the “singularity,” these fluctuations are merely noise. Artificial intelligence, robotics, energy, and innovation will experience uncontrollable, explosive growth.

In the next decade, we will have billions (or more) of AI agents, humanoid robots, space data centers, multi-planet colonization, and significantly improved medical therapies; we will fundamentally change the pace and output of technological breakthroughs across all fields. The technological progress and economic growth compressed into the next twenty years will surpass the total of human civilization’s entire history.

We are already on a steep J-curve, but when zooming in to daily or weekly micro levels, this becomes hard to perceive. Currently, 100% of Anthropic’s product code is written by Claude. Product managers have a virtual software engineering team so efficient it’s as if they can bend time. Companies leveraging AI efficiently are seeing product iteration speeds increase by three digits—not just single or double digits.

Moreover, these tools are evolving at an even faster pace. Whether we reach artificial superintelligence (ASI) in 2027 or 2029 is actually not that important. It will happen inevitably. By the time it’s officially announced, the assets you want will have already multiplied countless times.

Most likely, the actual economic growth over the next 3–10 years will reach 20 standard deviations (20-sigma) under any historical distribution model. This level of growth, once deemed nearly impossible, will be driven by unprecedented second- and third-order transformations. Traditional valuation models are no longer capable of pricing these changes. The potential upside is so vast that conventional present-value calculations struggle to capture it.

The speed of wealth accumulation will be astonishing—similar to how cryptocurrencies initially created numerous billionaires and millionaires in a short period, but this time on an even more extreme scale. If you lack exposure to risk, it will be difficult to buy into assets that are rising vertically; but unlike past bubbles, real economic value creation will better keep pace with asset prices soaring vertically. Over the past three years, those operating with a “scale of exponential” perspective have already reaped significant benefits. If you haven’t adopted this mindset yet, it’s not too late.

While it’s important to stay vigilant about downside risks, the greatest upward risk in world history is also at play. Learn to endure risks over longer time horizons. Now is not the time for swing trading. For most people, long-term investing typically outperforms short-term trading, but the expected value gap between “trading” and “investing” will be greater than ever before. Ask yourself: what is the value of the embedded bullish options within the singularity?