The $ETH /BTC pair is forming a bearish engulfing candle. If it closes and the RSI trendline breaks, the first support to watch is 1,968, with a break below 1,800 opening the door to new lows.

For context, in the last update on the 11th, both pairs were sitting at key trendlines with direction still uncertain. Since then:

$BTC pair tried to flip 0.03, but failed.

USDT pair got rejected around 2,200 as a result.

Now, the daily BTC pair is roughly 13 hours away from closing that potential bearish engulfing candle, with the RSI trendline also at risk.

The USDT pair is in a similarly weak position:

Sitting near the range high and value area high

Just rejected at the 50 SMA

RSI about to close below 50

All three signals aligning isn’t random it suggests distribution is happening.

If the BTC pair confirms the engulfing close and the RSI trendline breaks, the USDT pair is likely to revisit the 1,968 POC. If BTC then loses 0.028, the range breaks, and ETH could print lows not seen since April 2025, with $1,800 as the next structure level.

Think of it this way: BTC pair closes the door, USDT pair walks through it.