Three-Room Promotion: How Far Can a Shrinking Market Go

Since joining Taoguba, I initially intended to use a pen as a blade and stocks as a mirror to record the ups and downs of trading and explore the veins and meridians of the market. Unexpectedly, with everyone’s support, each encouragement feels like a warm tonic, dispelling the confusion of short-term battles. Every attention is like a conduit, strengthening my resolve to refine my system. [Taoguba]

Xiaoyou understands that short-term trading is like traditional Chinese medicine diagnosis—requiring insight into the “lesion” amidst fluctuations and distinguishing “Yin and Yang.” Growth, however, is not a solo journey—your recognition is the most valuable “medicine” in my review logs, giving this market analysis based on TCM thinking a more vibrant practical soil.

In the years ahead, I will continue to adhere to my “Four Diagnostics”: observing the market trend, listening to capital flows, questioning the logic, and cutting into buy/sell decisions. I will truthfully record each diagnostic process, gains and losses, and hope to use stocks as a bridge to mutually learn, verify, and explore profitable paths with fellow investors.

Grateful for this encounter, the road ahead is long, and I walk it with you.

26.03.18,
8:26 AM,
Pre-market planning,
Clear and well-organized in my mind.

Super short-term trading mainly depends on decisive actions at the opening,
with timely follow-up posts during the session to record and share.

Xiaoyou’s diagnosis today (35%):
Pre-market plan to actively strengthen Yabo Co.,符合;
Pre-market plan for Sanfangxiang divergence to turn strong,符合;
Lifted Jingtou Development during the rise;
Yuneng Holdings rolling with the trend;

March 18 Xiaoyou’s Four Diagnostics

1. Observation: Market Sentiment (Assessing the Big Trend, Recognizing Strong and Weak Pulses)
1. Big Trend: Judging the market’s “Qi and blood” condition
Today’s main index closed at 4062.98 points, showing signs of “mixed deficiency and excess, Yin and Yang fighting.” The index rose 13.08 points, forming a resistant positive line, but volume has shrunk for six consecutive days, indicating the market’s “Qi and blood” are still insufficient.
From short-term sentiment indicators, the market shows “emotional recovery but lacking momentum”: on one hand, 3,433 stocks rose, 57 stocks hit daily limit-ups without ST, only 4 stocks hit limit-downs, suggesting panic emotions are easing and profit-taking is warming; on the other hand, the success rate of consecutive limit-up stocks is generally low, with only Sanfangxiang remaining at high levels, indicating funds are not strongly committed to continuous rally, mostly engaging in “one-day trades” or “core groupings,” in a weak recovery phase with small gains, difficult to form a strong trend.

2. Recognizing Strong and Weak Pulses in Sectors: Core routes of “full Qi and blood”
Strong Pulses: AI hardware, computing power infrastructure, smart grids. These three are the most energized meridians today. AI hardware hit 10 limit-ups, Reeconda hit 4 boards in 7 days, Chuan Technology in 3 days with 2 boards, showing funds’ recognition of the “AI hardware revival” logic; computing, storage, and liquid cooling sectors surged on news of Alibaba Pingtouge’s price hikes and Google’s inspection of liquid cooling equipment, with collective excitement. Langke Technology, though not hitting consecutive boards, showed significant sector effects;
In smart grids, Zhongnan Cultural led with 6 boards in 8 days, Huadian LiaoNeng hit 3 boards in 3 days, resonating with the “computing and power” synergy, making it the current strongest “Yang pulse.”
Rotating Sectors: Commercial aerospace, steel (cyclical sectors). Commercial aerospace hit 5 limit-ups; Jiugang Hongxing hit 3 boards in 4 days; Shunhao Holdings hit 2 boards in 2 days—these are driven by event-driven “hot money,” lacking sustainability, mainly acting as “gap fillers” or “rotation lines” in market sentiment, belonging to “Yin pulses.”

2. Listening to Market Voices (Exploring Policy and Industry Resonance, Monitoring Capital Flows)
1. Policy and Industry Resonance
Market focus is highly concentrated on “hard technology” and “new productive forces.” Alibaba Pingtouge’s price hike directly stimulated collective breakout in core hardware sectors like computing power, storage, and liquid cooling.
Google’s inspection of liquid cooling equipment further adds “international giants’ endorsement” to this logic.
The ongoing activity in smart grids reflects the resonance of “computing power electricity consumption” and “grid transformation” logic.
Additionally, the movement in commercial aerospace echoes national emphasis on space endeavors, but compared to the main computing line, its industry logic is less sustained.

2. Monitoring Capital Movements:
Capital attitude shows a coexistence of “eliminating weak and retaining strong” and “switching between high and low.” On one hand, funds are highly concentrated on core stocks with only Sanfangxiang remaining at high levels, indicating that in the elimination race, funds prefer to group around the most recognizable leaders; on the other hand, the cautious attitude of funds in limit-up stocks is evident—only 4 stocks advanced to the second round, suggesting they prefer to hunt for low-priced first-limit stocks for rebound opportunities rather than chase divergence at high levels. Divergence funds mainly flow into AI hardware and computing infrastructure, while outflows are more dispersed, indicating market funds are shifting from miscellaneous themes to core main lines.

3. Questioning: Inner doubts (Reviewing holdings and logic)
Questioning holdings: Assessing the “Qi and blood” quality of stocks
1. Yabo Co.: Focused on BIPV, actively increased today, consistent with pre-market plan.
2. Sanfangxiang: The only 5-board high-level stock today, with divergence turning strong, highly valuable. Fits the market’s “eliminate weak and retain strong” core aesthetic, also aligns with pre-market plan.
3. Jingtou Development: Rushed up early and exited to lock in gains.
4. Yuneng Holdings: Rolling with the trend, maintaining core positions during the chaotic period, while optimizing observation efficiency.

4. Pulse Diagnosis: Operational Strategy (Deciding Entry and Exit)
Overall market trend and sector outlook for tomorrow: The market continues to shrink in volume, with index recovery lacking sufficient momentum, likely maintaining a “volume-contraction and sideways” pattern in the short term. Sectors like “computing power infrastructure” (AI hardware, liquid cooling, storage) and “smart grids” remain the strongest main lines and are expected to continue their strength; sectors like commercial aerospace and steel may rotate, but sustainability is doubtful, mainly acting as auxiliary rebound lines.

The greatest opportunity lies where no one is paying attention;
The greatest risk is when everyone is noisy.
Let capital become an extension of your will!

Wishing everyone’s Qi and blood flow smoothly, and their accounts shine brightly!

Thanks to brothers and sisters of “Golden Powder World,” for understanding and supporting Xiaoyou through storms and sunshine. Your support has been invaluable.
Xiaoyou has now followed back, and will balance between fishing and farming.
Looking forward to more exchanges, progressing together, and chasing freedom!

Thanks to everyone for liking and recognizing! Appreciating others also accumulates your own blessings;

Thanks for generous tips! Those who are willing to give will receive continuously and abundantly!

Thanks for encouragement! Cheering for others will make your path blossom and become more wonderful!