March 18, 2026 Wednesday Review: New Ice Point Judgment!

Just returned from the north, and the market has rebounded. Quickly get back in position! Based on yesterday’s market, I deduced that today’s validation—under the upgraded quantification—means that the previous four key factors for determining the market bottom are no longer very accurate. These factors were all based on existing data, used to judge retail investors’ stress limits. Quantitative methods break through these limits, and the speed of data collection and analysis is faster than the human brain! The new approach is to judge the market movement through volume and energy! The characteristic of quant trading is high-frequency trading. When market sentiment is good, quant strategies can act quickly, making frequent trades, causing trading volume to surge sharply. As a result, retail investors can’t make money, and sentiment declines. Large quant models then stop trading one after another, until the biggest quant (main force) also halts, leading to a sudden decrease in volume. Retail investors panic and rush out, causing a spike in volume. Intraday volume might rebound, but it’s hard to see compared to yesterday—the volume then was the clearest example! There are many details, such as not chasing the tail end yesterday, and the possibility of volume expanding the next day. These require flexible responses! All of this is shared openly at the start of the article! [Taogu Ba]

Next, look at the intraday market.
From yesterday’s perspective, two points support the analysis: one is volume, as mentioned at the beginning; the other is the intra-day shakeout of Eastmoney. Eastmoney often reflects the attitude of the main force. At this point, many things could be shaken out—yesterday’s Yizhongtian was continuously selling off, Sunshine Power also, CATL too. Yet, these were also shaken out. When a shakeout occurs, the downward space is usually limited! These are details from yesterday’s market review. For example, when the energy-saving wind power sector surged yesterday, the main force deliberately intervened to disturb sentiment!

But here’s the question: based on yesterday, do retail investors know who the rebound is for? I think they should, but their biggest psychological barrier isn’t who the rebound is for, but whether they can trust it and whether it’s worth it—after all, it’s a five-ice state!

Today is interesting. Yesterday, the main index fell, but today it led the rise. For example, Xinyi Sheng, which I mentioned in the review yesterday, the rise led by Yizhongtian is meaningless. Especially in the morning, the idea was that if today’s volume doesn’t expand and the rebound is driven by institutions, it would be a super rotation—an environment where no strong force dominates, and whoever moves first can go. Yizhongtian opened high across the board in the morning, Tianfu Tongxun also opened five points higher, all of which were big declines yesterday, but today they all recovered collectively. Retail investors can’t follow because it’s hard to judge, especially with volume shrinking all day! They don’t know whether it will surge high and then fall back. So, this only has reference value, not operational significance!

Since it has reference value, we can incorporate it into the upper and lower limit theory. Because it’s a five-ice state, combined with market details, if we judge there’s a rebound, OK! Today’s rebound is led mainly by Yizhongtian, stabilizing the index, giving a rebound, with the upper limit holding steady and the lower limit stabilizing. The theme of coexistence is computing power! Storage power continues to ferment, but the fact remains that market volume shrinks—an undeniable fact! From this, the conclusion is that only volume can restrict the development of quant strategies. Otherwise, a trillion-dollar market cap moving straight line is very normal! Future gentle volume expansion, tug-of-war, will give the theme continuity! Using volume to control quant strategies while also influencing retail investors is a win-win—depends on whether the main force will do this!

From the pre-opening auction to the market open, the bidding for Huadian Liaoning Power can be said to have completely torn off the cover of quant strategies. Everything is laid bare—now it’s up to retail investors to recognize this reality! In the auction, Huadian Liaoning Power directly hit the daily limit, which is equivalent to declaring today’s sentiment is warming up (actually, the US stocks last night were slightly up or down, which is most favorable for A-shares). Among them, Guangdong Electric Power A and Shao Neng shares also contributed, boosting sentiment. Funds responded immediately to the previous power cooperation, with power leading the charge! After opening, a group of power stocks quickly rebounded, Huadian Liaoning Power failed to hit the limit, Huadian Energy also failed, Jinkai New Energy failed, Jiwei New Energy also broke, New Zhonggang broke, Min Dong Electric Power rose fast and fell fast, similar to Guangdian Electric. Some funds tried to push Jiangsu New Energy’s second board but failed. In the end, only Shen Nan Electric remained with a volume of just 100 million! The market statistics show that in just four minutes after opening, the sector was pushed to a climax—not by reaching a high, but by intensifying the momentum. At 9:34, I told the brothers in Jinfeng that there was a big problem with power stocks. The summary is: as long as the quant strategies are consistent and ignore the real traders, there’s nothing interesting—let quant strategies play by themselves! Whether power stocks can rebound tomorrow depends on whether those who broke the limit today can recover! Same, need a high open tomorrow!

Half an hour before the open, the previous strong stocks continued to outperform: a power stock and a storage chip. Langke Technology showed a one-plus-one pattern. The only flaw was that it only hit the limit in the afternoon. Today, eight stocks with over 10 billion market cap hit the daily limit, mostly in the afternoon—Tongye Technology (76 billion), Shen Keda (30 billion), Xice Testing (57 billion), Qiangrui Technology (61 billion), Langke Technology (up 60%, now 9.1 billion), Piling Ke Si (42 billion), Century Hengtong (24 billion), Pingzhi Information (32 billion). East China Trust’s market cap was slightly larger, initially rising but then breaking the limit immediately. Small-cap stocks with low volume not only hit the limit but also held well! Including power grid equipment like Jicheng Electronics, Baili Electric, Xin Hongtai, Great Wall Technology—all under 10 billion market cap. Under these circumstances, the weights of offshore power stocks like China Power are not promising. In fact, offshore power stocks like Dongfang Electric Power rose in the afternoon. Be careful with wording—this was passive, driven by the main force. I won’t use the word follow; I’ll distinguish between passive and active. Moving from passive to active requires confirmation!

Storage chips are stocks where intraday institutions can still flow back. The sector index also rebounded strongly with volume. In the morning, Beiwei Storage led; in the afternoon, Shannong Chip Chuang led, corresponding to Samsung. Logically, tomorrow’s front-runners should be stagnant, with the back-end leading—this is the healthiest trend. Since some people expect Yizhongtian to appear here, then the expected trend should match that; otherwise, it’s below expectations!

At 9:51, Jialitu surged to the limit. The “East Data West Computing” group, Meili Yun, Ningbo Construction, Capital Online, Yakang Shares, etc., are all from that batch. They are now divided into Alibaba and Tencent groups, with different eras and different hype segments. But looking at the core, it depends on who is hyping big. Many wonder why Guojing Technology isn’t a perennial strong stock. That’s an old concept, also influenced by quant intervention. When it reaches a certain height, retail interest wanes, and quant interest diminishes—then no one pushes. Later, Jialitu led Meili Yun to hit the limit, and East China Trust began to flow back, replacing Capital Online’s position!

At 9:58, Dayuan Pump Industry surged to the limit. The 300 index corresponds to Gulang Co., which follows the CPO rhythm. You can’t judge by shape; only market sentiment. When the bottom is in, the most recognizable institutions are the early ones. It’s hard to be certain—just keep a few positions. Sentiment is the same.

After 10:07, Huadian Shares and Shenghong Technology both surged then fell back, as did the index. In the comments, I mentioned that the intraday index is looking for a bottoming rebound. If today opens flat, it’s uncertain; a high open is hard to predict!

After 10:18, power stocks started to break the limit intensively. At this point, computing power and hardware began competing for funds. Jinkai New Energy, Jiwei New Energy, etc., all broke the limit.

At 10:45, CATL and Eastmoney led the index down. At this moment, Zhongji Xuchuang was still holding. Objectively, hardware stocks could participate, but the question is: is it meaningful to earn three points from Zhongji Xuchuang today? Can it be carried out? Today, Long March Fiber and others in optical communications are passive, with funds shifting entirely to storage chips.

Around 11:00, a dilemma emerged: CATL stabilized, Eastmoney did not—indicating this move wasn’t suitable. But Eastmoney was pressed several times without breaking. After 12 minutes into the afternoon, a double bottom formed on the intraday chart, and the market rebounded from the bottom!

At 11:16, funds flowed back into commercial aerospace, which has repeatedly rebounded intraday. Each time, the earlier stocks weren’t the main players. First, Aerospace Electric hit the limit and broke; then Wind Power stocks like Goldwind Technology surged, but the sentiment was passive. This shows the rotation of intraday sentiment. The most important point for commercial aerospace isn’t whether it rebounds but that yesterday’s comments concluded that this round of market started with the commercial aerospace sector, and it has continued to this day. So, the rebound in commercial aerospace is the fastest way to ease sentiment!

In the afternoon, Alibaba announced price hikes for cloud computing and storage. Data Harbor hit the limit straight away, followed by Yun Sai Zhijian also hitting the limit. Pingzhi Information also caught up. Several stocks hit the limit in the afternoon, except for Jinhai Gaoke and computing power/storage stocks. The rest are all related to this sector, including Tuowei Information and Huasheng Tiancheng—mostly passive! Comparing active and passive bidding, passive strategies don’t lose money; active ones open high, which is healthy!

By the close, total trading volume across the two markets was 20.61 trillion yuan, with a volume shrinkage of 1.635 trillion yuan. During the day, volume once shrank to 2 trillion yuan, then dipped again. Many are wondering if this is the bottom—following the rhythm.

1. Today’s rebound is based on the five-ice state, so a normal rebound and rapid rotation are expected. Nothing exceeds expectations; if it does, don’t hold onto false hope.
2. Computing power indeed resonates with the index, but institutional funds are in storage power—only a few data centers can support it. Today, Guanghua Xinwang was the strongest. To get funds to recognize computing power, put money in. The benchmark is East China Trust!
3. The main force today seems to be giving a consolation prize. If they want retail investors to profit, it shouldn’t be in one place. The previously oversold sectors should rotate. Stocks that didn’t rise today shouldn’t be chased blindly—avoid picking up sesame seeds and losing watermelons.
4. The upper limit holds steady—only reference, no participation. The lower limit is passive—eat the good first, then the bad. If you don’t eat the good, then it’s rational not to eat the bad either. If there’s nothing beyond expectations in the market, that’s a problem!
5. The impact of war is diminishing. It’s surprising that chemical and coal stocks could still rise with the index in the afternoon. Crude oil is still rising, so be cautious—don’t listen to ghost stories! The opposite of the pro-cyclicals is technology!

Rebound, rally, reversal—these are three steps. Rebound was judged yesterday; a rally needs confirmation tomorrow; a reversal takes three days—if quick, a conclusion can be made intraday on Friday; if slow, by the end of the day. Or, pre-judging tomorrow’s close is also possible. After March 15, it’s easy to imagine: when war no longer influences, will they start using tariffs as an excuse again?

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