US Pressure to Escort Hormuz Strait Meets Lukewarm Response from Allies

[Global Times Special Correspondent in the U.S. Li Yong, Special Correspondent Peiming] U.S. President Donald Trump warned in a phone interview with the Financial Times on the 15th that if NATO allies do not take action to assist the U.S. on maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, NATO will face a “very bad” future. He believes Europe is a major beneficiary of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and “should help ensure that nothing untoward happens there.” On the 16th, U.S. European allies responded. According to AFP, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that any plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would not be a NATO action. A spokesperson for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated, “NATO is a territorial defense alliance,” and the conflicts in the Middle East “have nothing to do with NATO.” The New York Times reported that reactions to the U.S. call for sending warships to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz have been cautious, with some countries not responding at all.

US Media: The U.S. government may announce the formation of a “escort coalition” among multiple countries as early as this week

Trump told the Financial Times on the 15th that if allies “do not respond” or respond negatively to the U.S. demands regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, “I think this will be extremely detrimental to NATO’s future.” NPR described this as the U.S. issuing a “threat” to NATO allies.

The Financial Times stated that despite Trump’s warning, he is skeptical whether allies will heed it. He said he has long said the U.S. would support allies, but they may not come to help when needed. “I have always believed NATO is a one-way street.”

According to AP, Trump told reporters on the evening of the 15th aboard Air Force One that he has asked “about seven countries” to send warships to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. When asked which countries would assist, Trump said, “We can’t say yet.” He added that “we will remember” those that refuse to help. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal reported exclusively on the 15th that the U.S. government plans to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to form the so-called Strait of Hormuz “escort alliance.” However, whether the escort operation will begin before a ceasefire between the U.S., Israel, and Iran is still under discussion.

UK officials: This is not NATO’s war, but U.S.-Israeli actions

The New York Times on the 16th noted that reactions to deploying warships in the Strait of Hormuz are cautious. Australian Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government Minister Catherine King said on the 16th that Australia does not plan to send warships. AFP reported that Poland, Spain, and other countries have ruled out the possibility of military involvement. According to Kyodo News and Reuters, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House on the 19th, and is expected to directly request the dispatch of ships. On the 16th, Fumio said at a Senate budget committee meeting that Japan is exploring response measures and “has not made any decisions yet regarding dispatching escort ships,” adding that Japan is continuing to study what actions it can take within its legal framework. NPR indicated that Japan’s military deployment in the Strait of Hormuz may not be legally permissible.

The Times of London on the 16th reported that the UK is preparing to use mine-clearing drones and counter-drone weapons to assist the U.S., rather than dispatch warships to ensure smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz as called for by the U.S. This decision could anger the U.S., according to the report. BBC on the 16th quoted Employment and Pensions Minister Pat McFadden as saying that the current conflict “is not NATO’s war,” but “U.S.-Israeli actions.”

AFP reported that German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on the 16th said Berlin would not participate militarily but is ready to support diplomatic efforts to ensure the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. He stated, “This is not a conflict we caused… this war broke out without any consultation.” Pistorius also questioned, “What does Trump expect European frigates to do in the Strait of Hormuz when such tasks are beyond the capabilities of the powerful U.S. Navy? That’s a question I keep asking myself.”

On the 16th, EU foreign ministers held a meeting in Brussels, where discussions are expected to include expanding the scope of the EU’s “Shield” escort operation, originally deployed in the Red Sea and other waters, to the Strait of Hormuz. AFP reported that Germany, Spain, Italy, and others expressed skepticism.

Options Facing the White House Are “Highly Challenging”

The New York Times on the 16th said that the U.S. now seems to be struggling with the choice of “staying or leaving.” Trump has sometimes hinted that the war is nearly won, and other times appeared to acknowledge ongoing fierce fighting. Some U.S.-Israel officials, in interviews, said that after entering the second week of the war, the U.S. government realized that Iran’s willingness and ability to “block” the Strait of Hormuz and impact the global economy exceeded expectations.

“The energy crisis triggered by a war against Iran could worsen further.” The Wall Street Journal on the 15th reported that this is a “severe message” conveyed by U.S. oil company executives to White House officials recently. Sources said that during a White House meeting last week and recent discussions with U.S. Energy Secretary and Interior Secretary, CEOs of ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips warned that disruptions in energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz would continue to cause volatility in global markets. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said on a podcast last week, “Our worst-case scenario during crisis management drills has always been the closure of the Middle Eastern Strait of Hormuz. Today, markets are very uneasy, hesitant, unstable, and unpredictable.”

The Wall Street Journal noted that according to AAA data, the average U.S. gasoline price on the 15th was $3.70 per gallon, up 26% from a month earlier, with diesel prices rising from $3.66 to $4.97 per gallon. CNN reported that Brent crude futures broke above $105 per barrel on the 15th. A senior U.S. official said the government knows oil prices will continue to rise but has limited options at the moment.

“Continue fighting or try to withdraw?” The New York Times on the 16th said that as the war enters its third week, Trump faces a tough choice. The White House has found that both options are highly challenging. Continuing the fight would put more American lives at risk, increase fiscal costs, and possibly further strain allied relations. Iran has demonstrated it can impose economic costs on the U.S. and its allies. If U.S. troops withdraw, most of their goals—including ensuring Iran never develops nuclear weapons—remain unachieved.