Baijiu stocks fluctuate higher, Huangtai Liquor hits daily limit! Moutai reshapes channel ecosystem releasing policy dividends, baijiu sector valuations have fallen to near decade-low historical levels

Chinese liquor stocks fluctuate and rise, with Huangtai Liquor hitting the daily limit. Jinhui Liquor, Jiugui Liquor, Kweichow Moutai, Shede Spirits, and Jinzhi Liquor also follow the upward trend.

The current market hype around the Chinese liquor sector is mainly due to the sector’s valuation being at its lowest point in nearly a decade, offering ample safety margins and highlighting medium- to long-term investment value. Additionally, Kweichow Moutai’s implementation of a new consignment policy is reshaping the industry’s distribution ecosystem. Coupled with the positive signals from the Two Sessions to boost consumption, the defensive nature and rebound potential of the liquor sector are attracting significant attention from investors.

In terms of news, this year’s Two Sessions will prioritize expanding domestic demand as the top economic task for 2026, emphasizing the expansion of high-quality consumer goods and services, and stimulating consumption in lower-tier markets. Policies such as trade-in programs for consumer goods will continue and be intensified, providing policy support for the liquor industry.

On March 13, Kweichow Moutai introduced several core personalized non-standard product consignment policies. The products remain under Moutai’s ownership, with distributors paying deposits to participate in consignment sales and earning fixed service fees. This approach pushes channels to improve sales capabilities, promotes online and offline integration, and solidifies the transition to direct-to-consumer (DTC) models, reshaping the liquor distribution ecosystem.

CITIC Construction Investment’s research report indicates that the valuation of the Chinese liquor sector has fallen to its lowest level in nearly ten years. The CSI Liquor Index PE-TTM is only about 17 times, at a ten-year low. Supported by stable sales during the Spring Festival, gradually improving channel inventories, and high dividend yields, the sector’s safety margins are ample. The medium- to long-term investment value is prominent, with significant room for valuation recovery, making it a key focus for investment and deployment.

Related Industries:

High-end Liquor: High-end liquor brands possess strong brand moat and pricing power. During industry deep adjustments, demand remains resilient. As leading companies like Moutai advance channel reforms, breaking traditional inventory arbitrage logic and pushing channel profits back to service quality, the brand value of high-end liquor will further align with genuine consumer needs. Leading companies will directly benefit from the industry valuation recovery.

Sub-high-end Liquor: With precise market positioning and cost-performance advantages, sub-high-end liquor has substantial growth potential amid consumption upgrades and expansion into lower-tier markets. As policies against industry “involution” continue to be implemented, corporate profitability and ROE are expected to gradually improve. Regional channel advantages and unique product features will help these companies realize performance growth and share in the rebound at the sector’s bottom.

Liquor Distribution Services: The implementation of Moutai’s consignment policy is driving a restructuring of the liquor industry’s distribution ecosystem, shifting profit logic from price margins to service revenues. Distributors with strong customer acquisition, sales operation, and offline service capabilities will benefit from the industry’s channel model transformation, opening new opportunities for business expansion and profit model upgrades.

Industry Chain Companies:

Kweichow Moutai: The absolute leader in China’s liquor industry. On March 13, it launched core personalized non-standard product consignment policies, reshaping industry channel operations and breaking the traditional inventory arbitrage profit model. This further consolidates its DTC transition foundation and enhances its control over the brand and industry chain. The company’s current market capitalization is 1.77 trillion yuan, with long-term investment value.

Luzhou Laojiao: One of the key players in high-end Chinese liquor, leading the sector this week. Its gross profit margin remains high at 87.11% in the first three quarters of 2025. With a strong brand heritage and quality advantage, it has ample valuation repair potential during the sector’s bottom rebound. Its performance shows strong resilience.

Huangtai Liquor: The stock that hit the daily limit today, representing regional liquor companies. With flexible market strategies and diversified product offerings, it has benefited significantly from the sector’s bottom rebound. Its performance highlights strong market linkage and rebound elasticity.