US Stock Market Close | Dow Jones Plunges 768 Points, Hits 2024 Low; Powell: Energy Price Rise Pushes Up Inflation Expectations

The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, expecting one cut each this year and next; Middle East conflicts have caused oil prices to surge nearly 50% within a month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that if inflation progress is not observed, rate cuts will not be considered. He believes rising energy prices will elevate overall inflation expectations, and the current priority is to reduce commodity inflation. Following Powell’s remarks, the Dow once dropped 800 points.

The Dow closed down 768 points at 46,225, the S&P 500 fell 1.36%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.46%.

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Iran’s conflict temporarily escalated, with Iran’s oil and gas fields targeted for the first time. Iran retaliated by attacking U.S. assets at a refinery in Riyadh, causing a large fire.

Iran’s state television reported that the U.S. and Israel attacked its South Pars natural gas field in the Persian Gulf. Markets are concerned about ongoing attacks on Iranian oil fields, with Brent crude rising 6.3% to a high of $109.95, and gold dropping 3.4% to $4,834.51.

Iran’s National Gas Company later announced that the fire at South Pars had been extinguished, and oil prices retreated from their highs. Trump previously stated, “The only thing we haven’t destroyed is their oil, because if we did, it would take time to rebuild.”

Iran reports that Tehran retaliated with airstrikes on Wednesday, successfully hitting U.S. refinery assets near Riyadh, causing explosions and fires. Iran also targeted oil and gas facilities in the UAE and Qatar.

U.S. crude oil futures fell as much as 4.4%, then rebounded 3.33%, closing at $96.32, up 0.11%. Brent crude settled at $107.38, up 3.8%.

Powell spoke at a press conference after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, mentioning that if Congress does not confirm a new Fed chair by the end of his term in May, he will serve as acting chair.

Economic data showed that in February, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.4% year-over-year, exceeding expectations of 3% and the previous 2.9%. Monthly PPI increased 0.7%, higher than the expected 0.5%. Core PPI rose 3.9% YoY, above forecasts of 3.7% and January’s 3.6%. Monthly core PPI increased 0.5%, also above the expected 0.3%.

Nuveen notes that recent geopolitical shocks have led markets to reassess the risks of tightening monetary policy, but considers such adjustments premature. The focus remains on inflation, largely ignoring the negative growth impact typically associated with rising energy prices. With inflation rates in many developed markets near target and economic growth slowing, policymakers may adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than resuming rate hikes.

The firm believes that today’s inflation environment differs significantly from the post-pandemic period when aggressive tightening was necessary. Although commodity prices may temporarily boost inflation, the net effect is more complex: rising energy costs can suppress real income and demand. Therefore, oil shocks are more likely to delay disinflation rather than reignite a sustained inflation cycle.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update; details on the next page.

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Market overview:

【17:55】Before the Fed announcement, Dow futures up 257 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.7%. Micron (MU) reports earnings after market close.

【16:45】【AI + SpaceX】Elon Musk again claims: SpaceX will become the AI leader in a few years, surpassing “everyone combined.”

【16:25】【AI + NVIDIA】Jensen Huang: OpenClaw is definitely the next ChatGPT, significantly expanding personal AI capabilities.

【14:03】Dow futures up 217 points at 47,565; S&P futures up 31 points at 6,804; Nasdaq futures up 151 points or 0.6% at 25,166.

【13:53】【Iran crisis】S&P warns: if conflict persists, Gulf banks could face over $2 trillion in deposit outflows.

【13:15】【AI + Meta】Reports say China penalized Meta for acquiring Manus, possibly restricting Manus executives from leaving China.

【13:05】【Iran crisis】Citi expects Brent crude to rise to $110–120; how can the oil rally be halted?

【12:34】【US IPO】Swarmer, supported by AI drone and defense themes, surges 5.2x on debut, up another 44% after hours.

【12:26】【AI + MU】Micron’s stock rises 4% before earnings, up 60% YTD, market cap over $500 billion. Analysts see momentum similar to NVIDIA’s past, with $1,000 target not unreasonable.

【11:28】【AI + Risks】Howard Marks of Oaktree: AI makes the world less predictable; investors underestimate AI’s impact.

【11:09】【AMD】AMD’s Su Zifeng reportedly visits Samsung Pyeongtaek chip plant to expand wafer manufacturing, dines with Lee Jae-yong.

【10:42】【Iran crisis】UAE Central Bank strengthens banking stability with five measures; forex reserves over $270 billion, ready with policy tools.

【10:27】【AI + Amazon】Amazon CEO: Cloud revenue (AWS) could reach $600 billion in 10 years, double previous estimates.

【10:26】【Xi-Trump meeting】Trump: China visit postponed about 5-6 weeks; “Both sides are rescheduling.”

【10:16】【Gold price trend】Gold remains around $5,000, awaiting Fed rate decision; focus on Fed’s view on energy prices and labor market.

【09:50】【New IPO】OpenAI reportedly to go public in Q4.

【08:40】【AI + NVIDIA】NVIDIA reportedly preparing to launch Groq AI chips in China; Huang Renxun: restarting H200 production.

【07:26】【TME earnings】Tencent Music’s stock plunges 25% in US, despite good earnings and dividend increase.

【07:17】【Iran crisis】Iran’s second-in-command Larijani reportedly killed by Israel; highest-level assassination since Khamenei (ongoing updates).

【07:00】【Parent company of Baby Kingdom】Hong Kong’s Baby Kingdom parent withdraws US IPO application; likely to trigger tech park rent subsidy exchange agreement.

Below $1 for March 16 US stocks====

Monday: Oil drops over 2%, Dow rises 387 points; Trump delays China visit by one month.

US dollar index and oil prices decline; NYMEX crude drops 5.3% to $93.5; Brent crude falls 2.4% to $100.66. The dollar index drops 0.6% to 99.8; 10-year Treasury yield falls 0.06% to 4.216%.

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As G7 major countries begin releasing strategic oil reserves, short-term supply is ample, but the Iran situation remains a concern. Trump announced he has postponed his meeting with President Xi Jinping by about a month, as staying in Washington to direct the Iran conflict is very important to him. The delay reflects Trump’s expectations about the duration of the Iran war.

The Dow rose 387 points, closing at 46,946; the S&P 500 gained 1% to 6,699; the Nasdaq increased 1.2% to 22,374.

Foreign media PBS reports that Trump said Iran is not yet ready to reach an agreement, and mentioned that once the war ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a rolling stone, believing the conflict won’t last too long. He also stated that Iran has left substantial infrastructure in Tehran that could be destroyed within an hour, but doing so would require years of rebuilding and cause trauma, so he prefers to avoid it. He also mentioned he does not want to destroy pipelines in the oil-rich Halek Island because once destroyed, it would take years to reconnect.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in an interview with CNBC, said the U.S. does not mind some Iranian, Indian, and Chinese ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, considering Iran’s release of ships as a natural opening, and hopes global oil supply remains sufficient. She also said any measures aimed at easing oil prices will depend on how long the Iran conflict continues.

In terms of key stocks, NVIDIA (US: NVDA) rose 2.6%, closing at $184.93, after Jensen Huang’s speech at the GTC conference.

Data center company Nebius (US: NBIS) surged 15.4%, announcing that starting early 2027, it will provide Meta (US: META) with $12 billion worth of dedicated computing capacity. Meta also pledged to purchase up to an additional $15 billion in computing capacity. Meta’s stock rose 1.9%.

This week’s focus includes the US February PPI data released Tuesday, and the Fed’s interest rate decision on Thursday early morning. Major central banks such as the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will also hold meetings this week. Additionally, Micron (US: MU) will release earnings after market close on Wednesday.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update; details on the next page.

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Market overview:

【22:55】Trump: Once the war ends, oil prices will fall sharply; Dow up 393 points, oil down 1%.

【21:30】Yellen: US does not mind Chinese ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow up 369 points, oil down 1%.

【18:50】Third week of Middle East war; Dow futures up 152 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.7%. This week is a “super rate decision week.”

【13:47】Dow futures up 226 points at 47,112; S&P futures up 39 points at 6,724; Nasdaq futures up 147 points or 0.6% at 24,753.

【12:59】【AI + Chips】Tesla building its own chips? Elon Musk announces the launch of a massive AI chip factory, “Terafab.”

【12:06】【AI + Gemini】Gemini is used in Hong Kong! Google: will further expand Gemini to all users in Hong Kong, starting with web version, mobile app coming later.

【11:07】【Xi-Trump meeting】Trump says “possible delay” of about a month for the China summit.

【10:14】【Iran crisis】IEA: Over 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves are about to be released, prioritizing supply to Asia; Europe and the US need to wait until late March.

【19:28】【Gold trend】Gold falls below $5,000 amid ongoing Middle East war and rising oil prices.

【11:36】【Iran crisis】US Energy Secretary: Cannot guarantee oil prices will fall within weeks; after attacking military facilities, will target the Strait of Hormuz (ongoing).

【07:30】【Global outlook】This week is a “super rate decision week”; Fed expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday.

【07:30】As tensions in the Middle East escalate again, US stocks declined last Friday; Dow briefly rose 446 points to 47,428, then fell back 183 points, closing at 46,558, down 119 points; S&P down 0.61%; Nasdaq down 0.93%.

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The US stock market last week was characterized by… For details, see: 【Market close】 Preview of next week’s Iran focus, Dow down 119 points, Brent crude up 2.7% to over $103.

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