Nvidia 'Checks All The Boxes,' But Stock Remains Range-Bound. Here's Why.

Nvidia (NVDA) provided a bullish outlook for the artificial intelligence market and its leadership position in it, but Nvidia stock is stuck in neutral. Wall Street analysts on Tuesday offered their opinions on the situation.

In a client note, TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter said investors lately have repeatedly asked him, “Why won’t Nvidia’s stock go up?”

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Buchalter said he shares their “frustration with six months of sideways trading during which fundamentals, numbers, and visibility improved.”

On Monday, Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang raised his forecast for AI data center infrastructure sales from 2025 through 2027 to “at least $1 trillion.” Wall Street had been modeling for $950 billion. A year ago, Nvidia predicted $500 billion in AI hardware sales in 2025 and 2026.

Huang also showed new cutting-edge processors and full-stack AI solutions and announced a host of partnerships spanning automotive, health care and life sciences, manufacturing and other industry segments.

Huang’s nearly two-and-a-half-hour keynote presentation at the company’s GTC conference in San Jose, Calif., “checks all the boxes,” Citi analyst Atif Malik said in a report.

“Net-net, we came out of the keynote reassured in Nvidia’s roadmap and continued ability to innovate faster than the competition,” Malik said. He reiterated his buy rating on Nvidia stock with a price target of 300.

Still, on the stock market today, Nvidia stock dropped 0.7% to close at 181.93.

Nvidia Stock In Consolidation Pattern

TD Cowen’s Buchalter said Nvidia stock is likely taking a breather after its steep climb.

“Nvidia is the world’s largest market cap company at $4.4 trillion,” he said. “The stock is up >50%/>6x/>13x in 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, outperforming the S&P by >30%/>5x/>12x, respectively.”

He added, “Six months of flat returns may seem like forever for investors with short memories.”

Nvidia stock is in a 20-week consolidation pattern with a buy point of 212.19, according to MarketSurge charts. That buy point is also its all-time high, reached on Oct. 29.

‘Nvidia No Longer Trades Like Other Stocks’

The simplest explanation for the stagnation in Nvidia stock is its unprecedented market capitalization, Buchalter said.

“The market cap has gotten so large that Nvidia no longer trades like other stocks,” he said. “The reality is there are trading and fund-flow dynamics at play with a >$4T company that we, and investors, are not used to.”

Nvidia stock has hit a ceiling because of the law of large numbers in finance.

“Many investors, at least the ones that talk to semis analysts, want to pick stocks that they can at least create scenarios of them doubling,” Buchalter said. “That would require Nvidia to hit about $9 trillion market cap, or the GDP of Germany … plus India.”

What Nvidia Stock Needs To Move Higher

Investors likely will need to see more signs of durability in AI spending and continued strengthening of Nvidia’s position for Nvidia stock to advance, Buchalter said. He rates Nvidia stock as a buy with a price target of 235.

Still, Nvidia’s keynote gave company bulls a lot to cheer about.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives called Nvidia’s forecast for $1 trillion in Blackwell and Rubin graphics processing unit (GPU) sales “a stunner.”

In a client note, Ives said Huang’s keynote presentation reinforced Nvidia’s position “at the top of the AI mountain.”

“This was a much-needed confidence boost for tech investors navigating a very tricky tape,” Ives said.

Too Much Hype Ahead Of Event, Analyst Says

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon reiterated his outperform rating on Nvidia stock with a price target of 300.

In a client note, Rasgon noted that Nvidia’s $1 trillion cumulative sales target is conservative because it only includes GPUs and associated networking chips. It does not include the new Groq inferencing chips, stand-alone central processing unit (CPU) racks and other products, he said.

Mizuho Securities trading-desk analyst Jordan Klein said Nvidia and Huang “did what they needed to do for investors to remain confident.”

In a client note, Klein said he is not surprised by the muted stock reaction to the Nvidia GTC news.

“The lead up and anticipation is usually way bigger than the actual news and stock moves,” he said.

Nvidia stock is on two IBD lists: Leaderboard and Tech Leaders.

Follow Patrick Seitz on X at @IBD_PSeitz for more stories on consumer technology, software and semiconductor stocks.

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