The shipping concept surged once again; institutions warn that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could reshape the global energy landscape.

How AI · Oil Tanker Attacks Are Reshaping the Energy Transportation Landscape

On March 18, shipping concept stocks surged during trading, with COSCO Shipping Energy reaching the daily limit. China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Development, China Shipping Development, China Merchants Port, and COSCO Shipping Holdings also rose.

In the early trading session, the container shipping index European futures main contracts opened high and fluctuated during the day, with gains retreating. As of the latest report, the European futures main contracts for the container shipping index increased by 1.86%, closing at 1974 points.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office reported on the 17th that a tanker anchored in the Gulf of Oman was attacked by unidentified projectiles. The report indicated minor structural damage with no injuries. The office stated in a release that the incident occurred 23 nautical miles east of Fujeirah, UAE (about 42.6 km), with no environmental pollution reported. No further details were provided.

CITIC Securities pointed out that the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping the energy landscape. According to Kpler data, about 10 oil tankers are expected to dock at Yanbu Port. Concerns over “value without market” are easing, and VLCC numbers are expected to increase further. The shipping distance from Yanbu Port/Hormuz Strait to Qingdao has increased by approximately 18%. Considering the shipping capacities of Yanbu and Fujeirah ports, the demand gap is seeking to be supplemented by the US Gulf, further expanding the shipping distance increase to over 30%. In the short term, strategic reserves are being released, and supply chain adjustments are being made to hedge against the geopolitical impacts of US-Iran conflicts. However, partial recovery of the Strait of Hormuz transit capacity remains a key solution. Post-lifting of restrictions, demand compensation is expected to sustain high freight rates for oil tankers. If vessel utilization remains limited, freight rates could rise further. The historic increase in VLCC capacity concentration is noteworthy, and the freight pricing mechanism is being reshaped. On one hand, “quasi-alliance” formations enhance shipowners’ bargaining power; on the other hand, alliances formed by Sinokor, MSC, and Trafigura, with surplus fleet rentals, further boost capacity expansion. Concentration is expected to increase further. Short-term uncertainties may continue to push freight rates upward, supporting the expectation that leading oil transportation companies will achieve record profits by 2026.

Huarong Securities stated that crude oil transportation benefits from sustained production increases and tight capacity fundamentals. The “Changjin factor” is reshaping pricing logic, and geopolitical shifts may continue to catalyze sentiment and fundamentals. The oil shipping market is expected to see significant growth in 2026, maintaining high levels over the next three years, potentially ushering in a “great era of oil shipping.” Recommended stocks include China Merchants Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy, and China Merchants South America. The recovery of dry bulk markets is promising, as environmental regulations limit operations of older ships, leading to effective capacity reduction. Coupled with continuous increases in iron ore production from Australia, Brazil, and West Africa, and the potential for a Fed rate cut boosting global commodity demand, the dry bulk market is expected to continue recovering, entering a “new cycle of dry bulk shipping.” Suggested stocks include China Merchants Shipping (oil and dry bulk resonance), Haitong Development, Hainan Airlines Technology, and China Shipping Development. The long-term growth potential of intra-Asia container shipping demand is promising, with diversified global supply chains as a core factor and US tariffs acting as catalysts. Meanwhile, limited new shipbuilding capacity cannot meet existing replacement and demand growth, sustaining market prosperity. Recommended stocks include Hainan International Maritime, Nakagawa Logistics, and Jinjiang Shipping.