Who breaks the game and identifies the difference? Three houses alley

1. Market Sentiment Cycle [Taogu Ba]
   (1) Long-term cycle: Chaos phase, Day 26.
   (2) Short-term cycle: Main upward phase, Day 2.
   (3) Sentiment: Profit-taking effect is relatively good. (Very good, good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, poor, very poor)

2. Timing
   (1) The market shows a V-shaped rebound, closing with a small positive candle, yellow above white below, volume shrinks, the close has not recovered the 60-day moving average, remaining cautious.
   (2) Golden Bull Chemical hits the limit down, indicating a possible breakdown of the group.
   (3) Sanfangxiang breaks through 5 consecutive limit-ups, slightly positive for sentiment.

3. Continuous Limit-up Tiers

600370 Sanfangxiang 14:27 5 Chemical
600396 Huadian Liaoning 9:25 3 Smart Grid
000020 Shenzhen Huafa A 9:25 3 Panel
002323 Yabo Co., Ltd. 9:30 2 Energy Storage
603387 Jidan Biotech 9:32 2 Pharmaceuticals
600307 Jiugang Hongxing 10:04 2 Aerospace
002565 Shunhao Co., Ltd. 11:11 2 Aerospace

4. Selected Stocks
   4.1 Leaders

Golden Bull Chemical, Chemical Industry.
4.2 Speculative Stocks

Farsun, Energy Storage.

4.3 First Market Entry

Sanfangxiang, Chemical Industry.
4.4 First Topic

None.
4.5 Key Hot Sectors and Core Stocks
(1) Chemical Industry
Core: Sanfangxiang.
(2) Smart Grid
Core: Huadian Liaoning.

5. Buy
   Sanfangxiang.

6. Holdings
   None.

7. Sell
   Farsun.

8. Tomorrow’s Plan
   8.1 Core Principles
   (1) Keep the main theme vague, do not insist on the leader; respect the cycle, adapt flexibly.
   (2) Set the direction first, then choose entry points; control risk first, then seek returns.
   (3) Lurk for rotation, strictly control mistakes; avoid chasing false heat, prevent huge losses.
   8.2 Today’s Stock Pool (Sanfangxiang, Farsun, Shunna Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Huafa A)
   8.3 Tomorrow’s Stock Pool (Sanfangxiang, Huadian Liaoning)
   8.4 Position Management
   Sanfangxiang: Expect a weak-to-strong transition with volume divergence today; otherwise, it may not meet expectations.

9. Pattern Practice
   9.1 Static Stock Selection
   Pre-market stock selection must follow principles like “Prioritize recognizability,” “Highness over strength,” “Consecutive limit-ups over rebound,” “Favor new over old,” etc.
   9.2 Timing Operations
   Timing mainly focuses on sentiment during the main upward phase, boldly increase position; on strong divergence days, generally warm sentiment, reduce positions and exit; during decline, avoid trading; on strong divergence or divergence days, strictly avoid trading.
   9.3 In-Session Stock Picking
   In-session selection is a necessary supplement and correction to static stock picking, following principles like “Prioritize recognizability,” “Price exceeds expectations,” “Open exceeds expectations,” “High buy low sell, first to open,” “Chaos rotation with groupings,” “Limit-up pressure snake movement,” “Follow A-shares to do A-shares,” etc., and adhere to “Patience and hit in one shot.”
   (1) Prioritize recognizability.
   (2) Prioritize core stocks.
   (3) Choose new stocks over old.
   (4) Pick high over low.
   (5) Choose strong over weak.
   (6) Select high over strong.
   (7) Focus on stocks exceeding expectations, not those below.
   9.4 Buying Stocks
   Follow principles like “Prioritize recognizability,” “Core stocks,” “Price exceeds expectations,” “Open exceeds expectations,” “Good stocks waiting for limit-up.”
   Buying stocks is the implementation of trading plans; at low positions, focus on “stronger” buy points; at high positions, aim for “weak to strong” buy points. An open surge is a basic prerequisite for buying.
   9.5 Holding Stocks
   Holding stocks must meet principles like “Prioritize recognizability,” “Core stocks,” “Price exceeds expectations,” “Open exceeds expectations,” “Early stronghold.” Early stronghold means sealing the limit-up before 9:40, with smooth intraday movement and large orders; after 9:40, no breakouts and strong closing orders. The core logic is to gain high premiums the next day; violating this means no basis for holding.
   9.6 Selling Stocks
   Selling must follow principles like “Sales below expectations,” “Risk of selling,” “Weakening after selling,” “Weak to weaker.” Be prepared to sell if:
   (1) Price increase at auction is less than yesterday or below market expectations.
   (2) Opening drop exceeds 3%.
   (3) First wave of high is less than 3%.
   (4) First wave of high hits the limit but cannot close the limit.
   (5) Second wave of high does not surpass the first high.
   (6) Intraday pullback breaks below moving averages, cannot re-stand within 3 minutes.
   (7) Breakout fails and falls below 7 points, cannot recover within 3 minutes.
   (8) Breakout falls below 4 points, cannot recover within 3 minutes.
   (9) Weak tail end.
   (10) During chaos, stocks that fail to upgrade (excluding core stocks), prepare for night ranking.
   (11) During chaos, core stocks that break the limit and fail to rebound the next day, prepare for night ranking.
   9.7 Error Correction
   Selling prematurely is normal; the key is overcoming psychological barriers, requiring deliberate training. Follow “Divergence to consensus”: if disciplined to cut losses when breakouts fall more than 7 points, but divergence occurs later due to index, sentiment, or sector factors, decisively buy back. Many find this hard; the core issue is psychological.
   9.8 Operation Reflection
   (1) Difficult to distinguish between exceeding expectations and explosive moves in real-time; this is a matter of skill, not just theory.
   (2) Hard to tell during multiple breakouts and re-closures; multiple breakouts rarely re-close, and even if they do, no premium the next day.
   (3) Low open and low decline often lead to buying at the bottom; in such cases, observe sentiment first, then sector, then rush high and exit, rather than hold and wait for stop-loss.
   (4) Low open and high rise, or high open and high rise, often lead to missing the bottom; focus on the first wave strength, rushing high is correct, and selling prematurely is also correct.
   (5) For stocks with high recognizability exceeding expectations, if auction opens high and the decline at open is within 3 points, with strong support at the bottom, prepare for breakout or limit-up.
   (6) For stocks without recognizability, even if auction and open exceed expectations, give up firmly due to high uncertainty.
   (7) Personal temperament is not suitable for the 932 exceeding expectations strategy.
   (8) Suitable for high recognizability (capacity core) 940 exceeding expectations strategy.
   (9) Never participate in stocks that break the limit and rebound; once broken, delete from watchlist immediately.
   (10) Always focus on A-shares, do not look at other stocks; strong stocks indicate active capital support, weak stocks indicate abandonment. When weak, discard immediately; when strong, buy back as treasures.
   9.9 Today’s Optimal Solutions
   (1) Best today: auction Huadian Liaoning.
   (2) Second best today: Sanfangxiang mid-session.
   (3) Third today: Shunna Co., Ltd. mid-session.
   (4) Fourth today: Rebound and break through Rebound Technology.
   (5) Suitable for more cautious style: Sanfangxiang, Shunna Co., Ltd., Rebound Technology.
   9.10 Potential First Limit-up Stocks Exceeding Expectations Yesterday
   4 stocks exceeded expectations, only 1 hit the limit-up, which was Shunna Co., Ltd. after a breakout and re-closure yesterday, with a success rate of 1/4; the other 3 did not have premiums.
   9.11 Potential First Limit-up Stocks Exceeding Expectations Today
   (1) Shaoneng Co., Ltd., flat open, flat close, no action.
   (2) Guangdong Power A, flat open, flat close, no action.
   (3) Rebound Technology, high open at auction, immediate decline at open, considered a pullback, can attempt to hit the limit-up. After it hits the limit-up, Shunna Co., Ltd. then has funds supporting, indicating some premium for tomorrow.
   3 stocks, all hit the limit-up, success rate 100%, but 2 are not operable, so 1/3.
   10 Painful Lessons
   (1) During decline, always clear out so-called leaders immediately; suppression is highly probable, “drinking soup” is unlikely!!!
   (2) During decline, all one-word explosions are catch-up rallies, artificially created false prosperity; when leaders fall, catch-up rallies are just A-shares killing, no exceptions.
   (3) Decline generally lasts 3 days, up to 5 days.
   (4) During decline, keep at least 3 days of cash!!!
   (5) Clearly distinguish between decline and strong divergence; during decline, leaders are suppressed without escape, and the next day they often hit the limit down again; the strongest catch-up may break the limit and fall back, with some support, but likely to decline the next day. During strong divergence, leaders turn weak and break the limit but rebound strongly the next day (with strong and weak distinctions); thematic stocks that catch up may show large divergence, funds will leave the weak and hold the strong, leaving some support stocks; the next day, support stocks may turn strong, continue to rise, and lead the main line of funds.
   (6) After decline, it’s chaos; chaos is a fan rotation market, with themes like semiconductors (chips), smart grid, robotics, chemicals, precious metals, consumption, commercial aerospace, AI applications, rotating over 2 themes daily.
   (7) Chaos market is a structural market, characterized by “good two days, bad one, and retreating,” normal rotation. Hot topics lack continuity, but core themes will repeatedly warm up, generally stopping at 4 to 5 rotations.
   (8) Chaos is like whack-a-mole; if strong today, follow today; if weak today, exit today. The rhythm determines whether it’s a bull or bear market.
   (9) Transition from chaos to strength has high success rate; from chaos to weakness, low success rate.
   (10) Transition from decline to chaos requires a “freezing point” switch; similarly, from chaos to main upward phase also needs a “freezing point.” During the freezing point, can attempt limit-up stocks, with high premiums the next day.
   (11) Ultra-short operations focus on buying today and selling tomorrow, favoring “weak to strong” over “buying low on the left.”
   (12) During chaos, reduce participation in stocks with 3+ limit-ups (excluding core sectors), as they often risk further decline.
   (13) During chaos, stocks with 3 or more limit-ups (excluding core sectors), if failed in the day, prepare for night ranking; do not expect miracles.
   (14) After-hours major negative news stocks, prepare for night ranking; do not expect miracles.